Oil declines on rising US inventories – ING

Oil prices were approaching a third consecutive weekly decline, with WTI falling to the lowest since May this morning, following a bearish US Oil inventory report. Recent reports suggest that President Trump will meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, partially easing fears of further destruction of the Russian energy infrastructure, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil inventories increase for a third straight week

"US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude Oil inventories increased for a third straight week by 3.5m barrels over the last week, as production increased while refinery capacity use fell from the week before. However, this was lower compared to the 7.36m barrels increase that the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the previous day. Total Oil stocks stood at 423.8m barrels (the highest since early September), 4% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, crude stocks at Cushing fell by 703k barrels for a third consecutive week to 22m barrels over the reporting week, the lowest since mid-July. Crude imports fell by 878k b/d to 5.5m b/d, while exports rose by 876k b/d to 4.5m b/d."

"For refined products, gasoline stocks fell marginally by 267k barrels, slightly higher than the average market expectation of a draw of just 111.4k barrels. Distillate stocks declined significantly by 4.5m barrels, compared to the market expecting a fall of 212.8k barrels. Furthermore, refinery utilisation fell by 6.7pp WoW to 85.7% over the reporting period. Singapore refined product inventories rose significantly by 3.14m barrels WoW to 48.4m barrels (the highest since 17 September) for the week ending on 15 October 2025. The addition was driven by light distillates and residuals, which increased by 2.1m barrels and 1.4m barrels to 13.6m barrels and 25.1m barrels, respectively. However, middle distillate stocks fell marginally by 400k barrels to 9.7m barrels over the reporting week."

"In Europe, refined product inventories in the ARA region increased by 56kt WoW to 6.03mt for the week ending on 16 October 2025, according to the latest data from Insights Global. The increase was driven by fuel Oil, naphtha and gasoline stocks rising by 40kt, 20kt and 4kt respectively. However, gasoil inventories fell by 55kt to 1.13kt over the reporting week. Both sets of numbers suggest that middle distillates remain comfortable in these regions."