NZD/USD: Odds of NZD rising to 0.6080 are diminishing – UOB Group

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range of 0.6005/0.6040 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum is beginning to slow; the odds of NZD rising to 0.6080 are diminishing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Upward momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Thursday’s price movements, we noted last Friday that NZD 'has likely moved into a 0.6015/0.6055 consolidation phase.' Our view of consolidation was incorrect, as NZD dropped to a low of 0.6000 before recovering. The decline did not result in any increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a range of 0.6005/0.6040 range."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (24 Jul, spot at 0.6040), in which we pointed out that NZD 'could continue to rise, and the next level to watch is 0.6080.' On Friday, NZD dropped to a low of 0.6000. Upward momentum is beginning to slow, and the odds of NZD rising to 0.6080 are diminishing. However, only a breach of 0.5985 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that NZD is likely to range trade rather than heading higher to 0.6080."