CAD holds tight range – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to respect its recent range parameters, effectively idling between 1.3650/1.3750 in quiet trade over the past few days as sentiment ricochets between tariff concerns and domestic data reports.

Sticky core inflation to reinforce BoC hold outlook

"The consensus forecast for today’s Canadian CPI is a rise of 0.1% M/M for June. Scotia is above the street at 0.2% M/M, however. Headline inflation is expected to pick up to 1.9% Y/Y with a 0.1% M/M gain, up from 1.7% in May. Both core Trim and Median inflation are forecast to remain at 3.0% Y/Y, close to where these measures appear to have stabilized in the past couple of months."

"Firm core data will reinforce expectations that a BoC policy is more likely in the coming months as policymakers monitor developments but a range breakout may hinge more on external developments than domestic data. Spot’s choppy consolidation over the past week has driven spot into a tightening range on the intraday chart defined by minor trend resistance at 1.3710 and minor trend support at 1.3680 this morning."

"Weak trend momentum on the intraday and daily oscillators are not helpful in trying to establish directional risks and may mean that a breakout from the short term range stalls relatively quickly. A sustained break above 1.3750 or below 1.3650 may be needed to drive more directional momentum."