USD/JPY: Breaking lower? – OCBC

USD/JPY was a touch softer amid broad USD softness and UST yields drifting lower. Pair was last at 144.20 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks remain skewed to the downside

"Key risk to watch in coming days – trade negotiation with US. Japan’s top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa was in Washington DC last week for the 7-th round of trade negotiations, in hopes of ironing out a deal before 9 July deadline. Japan said that Akazawa and Lutnick had a 'fruitful' discussion and agreed to continue seeking a deal that is beneficial to both US and Japan."

"In a separate interview overnight, Trump labelled the trade in cars between US and Japan as unfair, but he also said that Japan can take oil from US and 'a lot of other things'."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI continues to fall. Risks remain skewed to the downside. Support next at 144, 142.50 levels. Resistance 144.40/50 levels (23.6% fibo, 21, 50 DMAs), 146.40 (100 DMA) and 147.15 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low."