The Japanese Yen (JPY) has depreciated considerably against the US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) since the start of 2021. Analysts at Natixis explain why a weak Yen is good for Japan.
Japan's expansionary monetary policy, while the other OECD countries have adopted a restrictive monetary policy since 2022, has caused the Yen to depreciate sharply. But in reality, the depreciation of the yen is good for Japan's economy: It is helping to bring inflation back towards the 2% target; It stimulates exports; Since Japan has very substantial net external assets, mainly in Dollars and Euros, the depreciation of the Yen generates a capital gain on the yen value of these external assets.
As a result of these positive effects of a weak Yen on Japan, we should not expect Japan to switch to a much more restrictive monetary policy. At most, we should expect a symbolic hike in the Bank of Japan’s base rate.