GBP/USD holds above 1.3500 as USD loses strength after CPI
- GBP/USD trades marginally higher on the day above 1.3500.
- The US Dollar struggles to outperform its rivals after inflation data.
- CPI and core CPI both rose at a softer pace than expected in May.
Following Tuesday's sharp decline, GBP/USD stages a rebound and trades above 1.3500 in the American session on Wednesday. At the time of press, the pair was up 0.23% on the day at 1.3528.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.42% | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.42% | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.34% | 0.42% | 0.47% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.20% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.24% | 0.28% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | -0.25% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.17% | 0.23% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.34% | -0.18% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.12% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | -0.42% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.36% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.47% | -0.28% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | -0.07% | 0.14% | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.36% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
On Tuesday, GBP/USD came under bearish pressure after the disappointing labor market data revived expectations for the Bank of England to lower the policy rate twice more this year. The renewed US Dollar (USD) weakness, however, helped the pair shake off the bearish pressure midweek.
The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% on a monthly basis in May. This reading followed the 0.2% increase recorded in April and came in below the market expectation of 0.2%. Similarly, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.1% in this period, compared to analysts' estimate of 0.3%.
The USD Index turned south following the May inflation data and was last seen losing 0.3% on the day at 98.75. In the meantime, the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving the policy rate unchanged in September declined toward 30% after the CPI data, from nearly 40% on Tuesday, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Later in the American session, investors will pay close attention to the outcome of the 10-year US Treasury note auction.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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