EUR/CHF: Bearish reversal not seen on the horizon – ING
Source Fxstreet
EUR/CHF is just below 0.9600 after the release of Swiss inflation data. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
Ongoing disinflation continues to suggest the new SNB President may stay clear of more CHF-supporting measures
Switzerland has just published February CPI figures, which came in slightly hotter than expected. Headline inflation slowed from 1.3% to 1.2% and core from 1.2% to 1.1%, in line with consensus.
Despite the smaller-than-expected decline, ongoing disinflation continues to suggest the new SNB President (Jordan announced his resignation last week) may stay clear of more CHF-supporting measures.
EUR/CHF has had a strong run lately, but we had targeted a move to 0.9600 by the spring and do not see a bearish reversal on the horizon.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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