Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Forex

RUB: CBR likely to signal rate cuts before end of year – Commerzbank

Source Fxstreet

Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers. What will be interesting to observe, post-meeting, is to what extent governor Elvira Nabiullina is willing to appear dovish already, and confirm rate cuts for later in the year (which CBR surveys indicate that market participants forecasts widely anticipate), Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Inflation slows, eyes on Nabiullina’s tone

"Pro-inflation risks are easing finally: a stronger rouble exchange rate is helping in the disinflationary direction; CBR had anticipated SAAR inflation at c.8% for March 2025, but the outcome turned out to be a more dovish 7.1% (for comparison, inflation was running at 14.1% at the end of last year); latest weekly data show CPI increasing at 0.09% w/w for the week of April 15-21, which is not really a worrisome pace."

"On the real economy side, recent data on GDP, PMIs, retail sales and bank lending to corporates, all show noticeable moderation. CBR’s updated mid-term projections will most likely feature downward revisions to growth, inflation and average key rate forecasts, although we are not sure that CBR will be willing to make downward revisions to inflation and rate forecasts yet. That will depend on whether or not the bank has decided to show a more dovish face already. It may weigh on the minds of board members that last year’s rate pause (when the interest rate was at 16.0%) turned out to be premature and sparked an inflationary upswing, forcing rate hikes to re-start."

"On balance, we think that CBR’s key rate will likely stay unchanged at 21.0% another quarter at least. Subsequently, rate cuts will likely begin. This shift in monetary policy will not impact the artificial USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates noticeably. The rouble is strong at the moment because of some optimism that the war may be coming to an end and that some sanctions could be lifted as part of a peace deal. But, in our view, this is fragile ground and we forecast USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to drift gradually upward over the coming year."

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500 A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Author Suzie

Sep 14, Mon

A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Silver breaks $64 as precious metals rebound — can gold hold the $4,280 line into the Fed decision?Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.

Author Suzie

Sep 16, Wed

Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.

Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate — what the vote means for crypto The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.

Author Suzie

Sep 16, Wed

The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.

Dow drops 631 points as the Fed hikes — but futures are rebounding: what's next for US stocks?The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.

Author Irene Q.

Yesterday 02: 54

The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.

Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July as the Fed's hawkish dot plot sinks in The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.

Author Irene Q.

Yesterday 02: 45

The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.

Popular Symbols