GBP/USD slides below 1.29 on soft UK CPI, budget presentation

Source Fxstreet
  • UK inflation dips to 2.8%, fueling BoE rate cut bets despite cautious central bank messaging.
  • Reeves’ Spring Budget delivers £7bn in cuts, sticking to fiscal rules amid downgraded growth outlook.
  • US Durable Goods data beats estimates, helping USD recover ground against the Pound.

The Pound Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday as UK inflation came in softer than expected, while investors scrutinized the Spring Budget. Across the pond, mixed US economic data lent a lifeline to the Greenback, which pared losses versus the British pound. The GBP/USD trades at 1.2895, down 0.36%.

Pound drops as inflation cools and Reeves’ budget tightens spending

The UK’s inflation rate dipped below estimates, with headline figures rising 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in February, compared to 3% in January. The Core CPI for the same period decreased by two-tenths, from 3.7% to 3.55% YoY, also below forecasts of 3.6%.

Even though this adds pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates, the bank warned against assuming that rate cuts would be quick.

Regarding the spring budget, the Chancellor of Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, reduced the government’s spending plans and adhered to her fiscal target.

Some of the primary key takeaways were welfare cuts of over £3.4 billion and cuts to current spending of over £3.6 billion. There were no changes or loosening of the fiscal rules to allow extra borrowing, and spending on defense increased by £6.4bn by 2027.

UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated their forecasts, with the economy expected to grow 1% in 2025, down from 2% forecast in October. Inflation is projected to remain around 3.2% up from 2.6% in the Autumn budget in 2025 and is expected to fall to 2.1% in 2026.

The GBP/USD dropped on the news, yet it has trimmed some of its earlier losses.

Across the pond, US Durable Goods Orders were solid in February, according to the US Department of Commerce. Orders rose 0.9% MoM, exceeding the forecast for a 1% contraction. Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, rose by 0.7% month-over-month (MoM), up from 0.1% in January, and above the estimated 0.2% increase.

Recently, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed has made significant progress in bringing inflation down, although there is still more work to be done. He added that policy is complicating the Fed’s job, and that in the next year or two, they ought to be able to reduce interest rates.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD is retracing at the time of writing, with sellers eyeing a decisive break below the March 10 daily low of 1.2861, which, if cleared, could pave the way for a test of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2800. If surpassed, the next stop would be 1.2700. Conversely, if GBP/USD rises past 1.2900, buyers could challenge the current week’s peak at 1.2973, ahead of the 1.30 mark.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.32% 0.21% 0.90% -0.75% -0.58% -0.20% 0.09%
EUR -0.32%   -0.22% 0.07% -1.02% -0.92% -0.47% -0.18%
GBP -0.21% 0.22%   0.70% -1.42% -0.73% -0.24% -0.07%
JPY -0.90% -0.07% -0.70%   -1.64% -1.50% -1.08% -0.82%
CAD 0.75% 1.02% 1.42% 1.64%   0.22% 0.55% 0.85%
AUD 0.58% 0.92% 0.73% 1.50% -0.22%   0.46% 0.74%
NZD 0.20% 0.47% 0.24% 1.08% -0.55% -0.46%   0.36%
CHF -0.09% 0.18% 0.07% 0.82% -0.85% -0.74% -0.36%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Ethereum Price Slips Lower — $3,000 Looms as the Key BattlegroundEthereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Author  Mitrade
Dec 15, Mon
Ethereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
placeholder
Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
Dec 16, Tue
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
placeholder
December Santa Claus Rally: New highs in sight for US and European stocks?Historical data show a rising trend of US and European stocks in December. If the momentum is strong, fund managers may rush in with a buying frenzy.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 02: 50
Historical data show a rising trend of US and European stocks in December. If the momentum is strong, fund managers may rush in with a buying frenzy.
placeholder
XRP’s Price Action Flashes a Warning Even as ETF Flows Stay PositiveXRP’s structure remains weak despite 18 straight positive closes in spot XRP ETFs, with analysts warning that $1.98 and other nearby resistance zones could cap rebounds unless the YO region is reclaimed, while deeper downside scenarios keep $1.53 on watch as a potential (not guaranteed) accumulation area.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 06: 37
XRP’s structure remains weak despite 18 straight positive closes in spot XRP ETFs, with analysts warning that $1.98 and other nearby resistance zones could cap rebounds unless the YO region is reclaimed, while deeper downside scenarios keep $1.53 on watch as a potential (not guaranteed) accumulation area.
placeholder
Gold declines on profit-taking, USD strength ahead of US CPI releaseGold price (XAU/USD) edges lower below $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from seven-week highs amid some profit-taking and a rebound in the US Dollar (USD).
Author  FXStreet
5 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower below $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from seven-week highs amid some profit-taking and a rebound in the US Dollar (USD).
goTop
quote