USD/CAD returns above 1.3900 as US Dollar strengthens across the board

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/CAD bounces back above 1.3900 as Trump’s victory strengthens the US Dollar.
  • Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50%-4.75%.
  • The BoC delivered a bigger rate cut due to slowing inflation and weak labor demand.

The USD/CAD pair recovers Tuesday’s sell-off and returns above the key figure of 1.3900 in North American trading hours on Wednesday. The Loonie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) looks set to register highest gains in single trading day in more than four years. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which discovers Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh four-month high near 105.40.

The USD Index surges as citizens of the United State (US) have elected Republican Donald Trump as their 47th President. Trump beat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in key battleground states takes by Senate. Risk-perceived currencies have been hit hard by Trump’s victory as investors expect higher import tariffs and lower corporate taxes in his administration. The scenario looks favorable for the US Dollar as it will boost corporate investment and labor demand.

Going forward, investors will focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which is scheduled for Thursday. Traders have priced in an interest rate reduction by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This would be the second interest rate cut of this year. In September, the Fed started the policy-easing cycle, however, the rate-cut size was 50 bps. Investors will also pay attention to the impact of Trump victory on the inflation outlook and the interest rate path.

Though the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weak against the US Dollar, it is performing strongly against other currencies even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut interest rates further. The BoC minutes for the October meeting in which the central bank cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual size of 50 bps showed that policymakers are confident that the disinflationary trend is intact and labor demand is weak.

"Members felt that a larger step was appropriate given the ongoing softness in the labor market and the need for stronger economic growth to absorb excess supply," it said.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Author  FXStreet
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Author  Mitrade
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
11 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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