USD/JPY: Stay short – OCBC

USD/JPY fell sharply amid the pullback seen in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 151.95 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

JPY set to continue to regain strength

“Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell from near overbought conditions. Near term likely to see further pullback. Support at 151.55 (200 DMA), 150.60/70 levels (50% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low, 100 DMA). Resistance at 153.30 (61.8% fibo), 155 and 156.50 (76.4% fibo).”

“Governor Ueda said that the current political situation in Japan wouldn’t stop him from lifting rates if prices and the economy stay in line with BoJ’s forecast. He also made reference to FX rates more likely to affect prices in Japan than before. He also said that similar wage deals next year as this year would be good but there is not much information on next year’s shunto yet. Overall, his remarks were more hawkish than expected and is likely to have paved the way for BoJ hike in Dec, which remains our house view.”

“Recent labour market report also pointed to upward wage pressure in Japan with 1/ jobless rate easing, 2/ job-to-applicant ratio increasing to 1.24 and 3/ even female labour participation rate rose to1.2ppts (vs. a year ago). Japan’s trade union confederation (or Rengo) is again calling for wage increase of 5% or more overall and 6% or more for SMEs for 2025. Wage growth remains intact, alongside broadening services inflation and this is supportive of BoJ normalizing rates while JPY should continue to regain strength.”