USD/CHF recovers amid Fed’s hawkish hold

• USD/CHF trades at 0.8944, recovering from daily lows of 0.8893 following the Fed's hawkish stance.
• Fed keeps rates at 5.25%-5.50%, revises federal funds rate projection to 5.1% for end of 2024.
• May’s US inflation data is weaker than April’s, impacting USD as Treasury yields plunge; upcoming PPI and jobless claims data are in focus.

The USD/CHF remains in the red, yet off daily lows of 0.8893 after the US Federal Reserve held rates unchanged and tilted hawkish. Policymakers expected just one rate cut instead of the three foresaw in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March 2024. Therefore, traders booked profits as the major recovered some ground and exchanged hands at 0.8944, down 0.35%.

Swiss Franc trims some gains after Fed’s adjust interest rate cut expectations

Federal Reserve officials tilted hawkish on their June monetary policy meeting decision via the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), as they project just one interest rate cut instead of the three foresaw since the December 2023 meeting. They voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate (FFR) at around 5.25%-5.50% and upward revised their inflation expectations as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.

The SEP showed that Fed officials upward revised their projections of the federal funds rate from 4.6% to 5.1% toward the end of 2024. Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, they project a 2.1% increase, as foreseen in March, while the Unemployment Rate is projected at 4%, unchanged from March’s SEP. PCE inflation is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%, and Core PCE is expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.8%.

Earlier, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that May’s inflation in the US was unchanged, but lower than April’s data. This weakened the Greenback due to plunging US Treasury bond yields.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature May’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) on Thursday.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF dived and tested the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.8896 before recovering from its earlier losses. Although the pair aimed higher, it was capped at the 100-DMA at 0.8949, a strong resistance level. If it’s cleared, the pair could rally toward 0.9000 and beyond. On the downside, the first support would be the 200-DMA at 0.8896. Key support levels lie below, like the 0.8800 figure.