EURUSD tumbles back to 1.08 region, investors turn to US GDP and PCE inflation

Source Fxstreet
May 29, 2024 22:50
  • EUR/USD backslid into 1.0800 on Wednesday as risk appetite withers.
  • German inflation figures mixed in May, vexing ECB rate cut hopes.
  • US GDP growth, PCE inflation data key print this week.

EUR/USD pulled back sharply on Wednesday, falling back to the 1.0800 handle after broad risk appetite evaporated. The pair is trading firmly into technical resistance as investors gear up for a batch of mid-tier European economic indicators on Thursday, followed by an update to US quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

Forex Today: Fed rate cut bets dominate the scene

Pan-European Consumer Confidence in May is expected to hold steady at -14.3, while the overall Economic Sentiment Indicator is expected to recover slightly to 96.2 from 95.6. After that, US quarterly GDP is expected later in the day, with Annualized Q1 GDP forecast to ease slightly to 1.3% from 1.6%. Markets hungry for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be looking for signs of softening in the US economy as firm growth, a tight labor market, and still-high inflation figures hamper the Fed’s ability to deliver rate cuts at a pace that investors continue to look for.

At current cut, the CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in slightly-better-than-even odds that the Fed will be holding rates steady in September, but hopeful traders are continuing to look for reasons to step up rate cut bets.

The trading week will close off with German Retail Sales on Friday, which are expected to contract -0.1% MoM in May. Pan-European Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the year ended in May is forecast to tick upwards to 2.8% from 2.7%. US inflation data will close out the trading week, with US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation expected to hold flat at 0.3% MoM in April.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD has drifted back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0802, falling sharply lower after failing to recapture the 1.0900 handle. The pair remains down in 2024, falling -2.15% from the year’s opening bids near 1.1035.

Despite being on the downside, the pair is holding on the high side in the near-term, up 1.8% from the April swing low into 1.0600.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.0802
Today Daily Change -0.0055
Today Daily Change % -0.51
Today daily open 1.0857
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0808
Daily SMA50 1.0775
Daily SMA100 1.0812
Daily SMA200 1.0788
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0889
Previous Daily Low 1.0855
Previous Weekly High 1.0884
Previous Weekly Low 1.0805
Previous Monthly High 1.0885
Previous Monthly Low 1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0868
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0876
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0845
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0832
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.081
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0879
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0901
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0913

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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