Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates weekly gains ahead of mid-tier data releases

Source Fxstreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 23:

The US Dollar (USD) capitalized on the upbeat PMI data from the US on Thursday, and the USD Index closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory. Durable Goods Orders data for April and the revision to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey for May will be featured in the US economic docket ahead of the weekend.

S&P Global Composite PMI climbed to 54.4 in May's flash estimate from 51.3 in April, showing that the business activity continued to expand at an accelerating pace. Manufacturing and Services PMIs improved to 50.9 and 54.8, respectively. Following a downward correction seen in the European trading hours, the USD Index regained its traction and climbed above 105.00 for the first time in 10 days. Early Friday, the index holds steady near Thursday's closing level, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates below 4.5% after gaining more than 1% on Thursday. 

US Dollar PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.49% 0.06% 0.89% 0.86% 1.42% 0.65% 0.62%
EUR -0.49%   -0.46% 0.46% 0.37% 0.93% 0.14% 0.14%
GBP -0.06% 0.46%   0.76% 0.88% 1.41% 0.60% 0.58%
JPY -0.89% -0.46% -0.76%   -0.06% 0.52% -0.24% -0.27%
CAD -0.86% -0.37% -0.88% 0.06%   0.50% -0.22% -0.24%
AUD -1.42% -0.93% -1.41% -0.52% -0.50%   -0.80% -0.79%
NZD -0.65% -0.14% -0.60% 0.24% 0.22% 0.80%   -0.03%
CHF -0.62% -0.14% -0.58% 0.27% 0.24% 0.79% 0.03%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% on a yearly basis in April, following the 2.7% growth recorded in March. In the same period, National CPI ex Fresh Food rose 2.2%, matching the market expectation. USD/JPY showed no reaction to this data and extended its sideways grind at around 157.00.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Hawkesby said on Friday that lowering interest rates was not a part of near-term discussions and noted that there was a lot of uncertainty about tradable inflation going forward. After rising to its highest level in over two months above 0.6150 on the RBNZ's hawkish hold earlier in the week, NZD/USD lost its traction and retreated to the 0.6100 area.

The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales declined 2.3% on a monthly basis in April. This reading followed the 0.2% contraction recorded in March and came in much worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.4%. GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure after the disappointing data and trades below 1.2700.

EUR/USD registered small losses on Thursday but managed to hold above 1.0800. The pair fluctuates in a tight range at around 1.0820 in the European morning on Friday. Germany's Destatis confirmed earlier in the day that the real Gross Domestic Product expanded 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter.

After suffering heavy losses on Wednesday, Gold extended its slide on Thursday and fell more than 2% on the day. XAU/USD stages a technical correction early Friday and trades below $2,340.

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
Sep 30, Wed
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 26
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
placeholder
United States Dollar Index sits near March 2025 highs, above 102.00 ahead of US NFPThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
Author  FXStreet
7 hours ago
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
goTop
quote