Canadian Dollar gains ground above 1.3650 ahead of US PMI data

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/CAD trades on a weaker note near 1.3682 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The Fed minutes indicated worries over a lack of progress on inflation.
  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) may dampen hopes of a June interest rate cut. 

The USD/CAD pair weakens to 1.3682 on Thursday during the early European session. The pair edges lower despite the weaker Greenback and the lower crude oil prices. Investors await the advanced reading of the US S&P Global PMI for May, which is due on Thursday. On Friday, the Canadian Retail Sales will be released. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate in a range of 5.25%–5.50% on May 1. According to the FOMC Minutes statement, the committee acknowledged that inflation remains more sticky than they would have thought. Therefore, the Fed officials prefer to be cautious and wait for more data to gain confidence that inflation will get down to its goal of 2%. Investors are pricing in a nearly 50% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The higher-for-longer mantra is likely to boost the US Dollar (USD) and cap the pair’s downside in the near term. 

On the Loonie front, investors lowered their bets on the June interest rate cut and instead moved to July as the Bank of Canada (BoC) might need to see more sets of inflation, GDP, and jobs data before deciding to cut the interest rate. This, in turn, provides some support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and creates a headwind for USD/CAD. The money markets are pricing in a 53% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut in June, while the possibility of a July rate cut is fully priced in.

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price 1.3682
Today Daily Change -0.0013
Today Daily Change % -0.09
Today daily open 1.3695
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.3673
Daily SMA50 1.3643
Daily SMA100 1.3559
Daily SMA200 1.3571
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.3698
Previous Daily Low 1.3624
Previous Weekly High 1.3691
Previous Weekly Low 1.359
Previous Monthly High 1.3846
Previous Monthly Low 1.3478
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.367
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3652
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3646
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3598
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3572
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3721
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3747
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3795

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Author  FXStreet
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Author  Mitrade
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Author  Mitrade
2 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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