GBP/JPY stuck below 194.00 as markets look ahead to BoE

• GBP/JPY floundered after a late start to the week’s UK markets.
• UK Retail Sales disappoint, crimping bullish GBP momentum.
• BoE, UK GDP still on the cards this week.

GBP/JPY flubbed a bullish run at the 194.00 handle, floundering in recent technical congestion as the pair struggles to develop momentum. UK Retail Sales figures missed the mark when UK investors returned to markets after a long weekend, keeping the Pound Sterling (GBP) pinned.

All is quiet on the Japanese Yen (JPY) front after two suspected “Yenterventions” from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently; The BoJ has thus far refused to officially confirm or deny intervention in global currency markets in an effort to prop up the battered Yen, but BoJ financing reporting revealed the Japanese central bank overspent on ambiguous market operations by around nine billion Yen.

The Bank of England (BoE) is due this week with another rate call. The central bank of the UK is broadly expected to vote 8-to-1 for a rate hold as the BoE grapples with a wobbly inflation outlook plaguing the UK’s economy.

Later this week will also be a fresh print of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, slated for Friday’s early London market session. UK GDP for the first quarter is expected to print at 0.4% QoQ, rebounding from the previous quarter’s -0.3% backslide.

GPB/JPY technical outlook

The Guppy is finding stiff technical resistance from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just below the 194.00 handle. The pair slumped to an intraday low of 193.00 before recovering into the midrange near 193.50.

GBP/JPY is sticking close to the 50-day EMA near 191.78, riding a long-standing bullish trend despite a recent pullback from multi-decade high above the 200.00 handle. The pair is still trading well into bull country, holding above the 200-day EMA at 185.87.

GBP/JPY hourly chart

GBP/JPY daily chart