NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Buyers dominance diminishes, market could favor sellers soon
Source Fxstreet
- The daily RSI shows that buyers' hold over the market is likely fading, signaling the growing presence of sellers.
- On the hourly chart, indicators underline a prominent seller command in the past sessions.
The NZD/JPY is trading slightly lower at around 91.23. It seems the firm grip buyers had over the market is dwindling, yet the pair doggedly persists above crucial Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Market watchers should eye the short-term trajectory of the NZD/JPY for any potential shifts that could give sellers the upper hand. Specifically, if bears breach the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 91.00.
On the daily RSI fluctuates around the positive region but is currently pointing down. This, combined with the rising red bars trend in the MACD (Moving Average Converge Divergence) histogram, indicates that buyer dominance is fading and the market could begin favoring sellers soon.
NZD/JPY daily chart
In addition, the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the neutral 50 line, reflecting a dominant presence of sellers in the recent sessions. The negative thrust is confirmed by the MACD, which reveals decreasing green bars, indicating diminishing positive momentum.
NZD/JPY hourly chart
Upon evaluating the broader landscape, the NZD/JPY is currently hovering above its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reflecting continued buying pressure thereby sustaining the long-term uptrend. However, the pair closely challenges the 20-day SMA, suggesting potential for further downward movements if this level doesn’t hold. Moreover, the pair maintaining a stance above the 100 and 200-day SMAs reinforces a long-term bullish view.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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