USD/CHF slips below 0.7950 as traders eye Swiss ZEW survey, US Q3 GDP
- USD/CHF weakens ahead of the looming US third-quarter GDP Annualized for Q3 due on Tuesday.
- Fed’s Hammack said policy is well-positioned to pause and assess the impact of 75-basis-point rate cuts.
- Traders await Tuesday’s Swiss ZEW Expectations survey for business cues and clarity on the SNB’s rate outlook.
USD/CHF pares its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.7940 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles ahead of Tuesday’s release of the US third-quarter Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the third quarter.
The US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good position to pause and assess the effects of the 75-basis-point (bps) rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, according to Bloomberg.
The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 79.0% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 75.6% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 21.0% from 24.4% a week ago.
However, US President Donald Trump said last week that the next Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be someone who believes in significantly lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is under consideration for the role, said, “Because inflation is still elevated, we can take our time - there’s no rush to get down. We can steadily bring the policy rate down toward neutral.”
Traders will likely observe the Swiss ZEW Expectations survey for December due on Tuesday for fresh signals on business and employment conditions, while seeking clarity on the Swiss National Bank’s rate outlook, with a return to negative rates seen as unlikely due to potential harm to savers and pension funds.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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