EUR/USD climbs to three-month high after delayed US jobs and Retail Sales data

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/USD climbs to its highest level since late September as the US Dollar stays under pressure.
  • Delayed US jobs data shows softer hiring momentum, with unemployment rising to a four-year high.
  • Mixed Retail Sales and weaker PMI data reinforce expectations of a cautious Fed policy path.

The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after brief two-way volatility as traders digested the delayed US labour market and consumer spending data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1800, its highest level since September 24, up nearly 0.25% on the day, as the Greenback remains under sustained pressure.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 64,000 in November, modestly beating market expectations for a 50,000 increase. In contrast, October payrolls contracted by 105,000, a sharp reversal from September’s 108,000 gain, which was revised down from an initial estimate of 119,000.

The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations of 4.4% and marking the highest level since September 2021. At the same time, the labour force participation rate edged up to 62.5% from 62.4%.

The report also showed that US payrolls were revised down by a combined 33,000 over August and September, echoing remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned at last week’s post-meeting press conference that job gains since April may have been overstated by around 60,000.

Wage growth showed further signs of easing in November. Average Hourly Earnings rose just 0.1% MoM, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% increase and slowing sharply from the previous 0.4% gain. On an annual basis, wage growth eased to 3.5% from 3.7%.

October Retail Sales data sent a mixed signal. Headline sales were unchanged on the month, missing market expectations for a 0.1% increase. However, the underlying details were more supportive, with Retail Sales excluding Autos rising 0.4%, while the Control Group jumped 0.8%, comfortably beating forecasts.

Taken together, the mixed US data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to further policy easing after delivering 75 basis points of rate cuts this year to support the labour market. While policymakers are widely expected to hold rates at the January meeting, investors continue to price in two rate cuts in 2026.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar remains under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, hovering near 97.96, its lowest level since October 3.

Adding to the Dollar’s downside, the preliminary S&P Global PMI surveys for December pointed to a loss of momentum in business activity. The Composite PMI slipped to 53.0 from 54.2, while Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 from 52.2 and the Services PMI fell to 52.9 from 54.1.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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U.S. November Nonfarm Payrolls: What Does the Rare "Weak Jobs, Strong Economy" Mix Mean for U.S. Equities?1. IntroductionAfter retreating from the late-October highs, U.S. equities embarked on a bottoming rebound in mid-to-late November, a trend driven by the interplay of multiple factors. That said, it i
Author  TradingKey
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1. IntroductionAfter retreating from the late-October highs, U.S. equities embarked on a bottoming rebound in mid-to-late November, a trend driven by the interplay of multiple factors. That said, it i
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Senate Delays Crypto Market Structure Hearings to Early 2026The Senate Banking Committee has postponed cryptocurrency market structure hearings until 2026, citing ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
Author  Mitrade
11 hours ago
The Senate Banking Committee has postponed cryptocurrency market structure hearings until 2026, citing ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
14 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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AUD/USD remains depressed below mid-0.6600s; downside seems limited ahead of US NFP reportThe AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers for the fourth straight day on Tuesday and trades around the 0.6630 region, down just over 0.10%, during the Asian session.
Author  FXStreet
15 hours ago
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers for the fourth straight day on Tuesday and trades around the 0.6630 region, down just over 0.10%, during the Asian session.
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Macro Analysts: Hawkish Japan Could Push Bitcoin Below $70KAnalysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 05: 48
Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
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