USD/CAD holds losses below 1.3900 ahead of US Q2 GDP Annualized
- USD/CAD depreciates as the US Dollar weakens ahead of Q2 GDP Annualized data.
- San Francisco Fed’s Daly said more rate cuts may be needed to restore price stability and support jobs.
- BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that Canada needs to take a “more independent path” from the US.
USD/CAD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.3890 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) corrects downwards after registering more than 0.5% gains in the previous session.
Traders would likely observe the upcoming US Q2 Gross Domestic Product Annualized later in the day. Focus will shift toward Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due later on Friday.
The US Dollar gained ground as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious note, stressing that the US central bank must weigh stubborn inflation against a softening job market, calling it “a challenging situation” and reiterating comments from last week. However, the CME FedWatch tool suggests that money markets are currently pricing in nearly a 92% possibility of a Fed rate cut in October, up from 87% a week earlier.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that further rate reductions are likely to be needed, as the central bank works to restore price stability and provide necessary support to the labor market. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee broke away from the overarching narrative of consecutive Fed rate cuts heading through the end of the year, widening the narrative gap between Fed incumbents and Donald Trump's newly minted Fed pick, Stephen Miran.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said Monday that Canada must pursue a “more independent course” from the US, citing the Dollar’s weakness and warning of systemic risks from shifting global trade and financial flows.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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