U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Deadline Approaches. Trump Says Iran Conceded but Is Rebutted; Nasdaq, S&P Hit Records for Third Day

TradingKey — On April 17, Trump declared on social media that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has concluded, claiming that Iran has agreed to most conditions, including the full reopening of the strait, a commitment to abandon high-enriched uranium stockpiles, and the cessation of support for regional proxy forces.

However, Trump was promptly contradicted by Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stated that the seven declarations regarding Iran posted by Trump on social media are untrue. Mahmoud Nabavian, a conservative Iranian lawmaker and member of the negotiating team, stated that Iran will continue to collect transit fees from passing merchant vessels and that the strait has not been fully reopened.

Despite the conflicting signals and the murky outlook for peace talks, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose for a 13th consecutive session, marking their third straight day of record closing highs.

Trump May Be Eager to End the War

A senior official in the Gulf region pointed out that Trump's move shows he is eager to end hostilities with Iran, but Iran still refuses to grant him a dignified exit on key issues.

In fact, Trump's conciliatory posture has become quite clear. Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Trump went so far as to state bluntly on social media on the 17th that the U.S. had prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon, warning them to stop. Trump also proposed hosting Israeli and Lebanese leaders at the White House to discuss a related political solution.

Furthermore, Trump characterized Israel's military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon as a "separate conflict," excluding them from the overall negotiations with Iran. Analysts believe this decouples the core issues between the U.S. and Iran from regional Middle East conflicts, thereby reducing, to some extent, the conditions that might hinder Iranian concessions.

However, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump's repeated "false claims" that Iran had accepted terms and compromised were actually just a negotiation tactic, intended to pressure the negotiating counterpart into accelerating action and signaling an "accept or be left out" ultimatum to Iran.

Judging by the actual situation, significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran regarding core issues. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a recent statement pointing out that enriched uranium is as sacred to Iran as its own territory and will not be transferred under any circumstances.

Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, noted that Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz remain key obstacles in negotiations between the two sides.

Mixed Signals Continue to Bolster Market Sentiment

Despite conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran, market optimism was nevertheless bolstered. On Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed down 11.45%, and the U.S. dollar fell to a near seven-week low. U.S. stocks continued to climb, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending their winning streaks to 13 days and closing at record highs for the third consecutive session, while the Dow surged 1.8%.

On the news front, this was primarily driven by reports during U.S. trading hours that Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for transit. However, given that U.S. stocks have already risen for 13 straight days, this rally may be supported by the market's firm optimism.

Previously, Goldman Sachs (GS) Rich Privorotky, head of the Delta One trading desk, noted that although the conflict itself has not truly ended, the stock market clearly believes the situation has stabilized.

Goldman Sachs strategist Chris Hussey stated that stocks are a forward-looking tool, and the market cannot afford to keep waiting for the outcome of the war—they know it will eventually be resolved. This psychology explains market behavior and why U.S. stocks have resumed their rally.

Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, even suggested that 'the stock market and indeed the entire financial market seem to no longer care about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,' and the market's logic may have shifted.