TradingKey 2025 Markets Recap & Outlook | Trump Signals Delaying Iran Strike, Three Major US Stock Indices Rebound

TradingKey - Trump stated that U.S.-Iran talks have been productive and decided to suspend strikes on Iranian energy facilities; as a result, the three major indices all rose more than 2% intraday and closed up over 1%, with airlines, travel, and cruise stocks surging; crude oil settled down over 10%; U.S. Treasuries and cryptocurrencies rallied intraday; spot gold fell for the ninth consecutive session, marking its largest monthly decline of the 21st century during the session.

Gold (XAUUSD) Dropped as much as 9% and touched $4,100 at one point; Silver (XAGUSD) Plunged 11% intraday and briefly fell below $62 before recovering all losses.

WTI May crude oil futures settled down 10.28% at $88.13 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures settled down 10.92% at $99.94 per barrel. COMEX April gold futures settled down 3.66% at $4,407.3 per ounce.

MG7: Nvidia (NVDA.US) rose 1.7%, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 3.5%, Meta rose 1.75%, Apple (AAPL.US) rose 1.41%, Google (GOOGL.US) edged up 0.35%, Amazon (AMZN.US) rose 2.32%, and Microsoft (MSFT.US) edged up 0.3%.

Market Headlines

Trump said that talks with Iran over the past two days have been "productive" and that the key points of an agreement have been established. Trump stated that talks with Iran were productive and he will delay strikes on the country's power plants and energy infrastructure by five days as consultations for a broader agreement continue. U.S. media reported that several countries are coordinating a meeting between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad this week; Iran denied its Speaker had negotiated with the U.S., calling the false news a pretext for assassination and noting it had not responded to U.S. attempts to talk through intermediaries.

The U.S. Energy Secretary said that while another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is possible, the likelihood is very low. Reports: Japan is considering intervening in crude oil futures as the Middle East crisis continues to drive up costs. The Petroleum Association of Japan stated that a second release of oil reserves is required, matching the initial scale of 80 million barrels.

Australia's largest ammonia plant has halted production for two months, dealing another blow to the global fertilizer market. Iran has severely disrupted Qatar's helium exports, placing global chip production in crisis.

Divergent views have emerged among different factions within the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Milan stated that geopolitical shocks are not yet enough to change the forecast of four rate cuts this year, while the Chicago Fed President said a situation requiring a rate hike could occur.

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