US Dollar Index remains below 98.00 as revised NFP data reinforce odds of Fed rate cuts
US Dollar Index weakened as disappointing revised job growth figures fueled rising Fed rate cut expectations.
US Nonfarm employment for March 2025 for March 2025 will likely be revised down by 911,000.
CME FedWatch tool suggests a pricing of more than 93% of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is treading water below 98.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Greenback is poised to struggle as traders widely expect a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, driven by the disappointing revised US job growth figures.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, signaling a weaker labor market than previously estimated. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in more than 93% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 86% a week ago. Focus shifts toward US inflation reports that could provide more cues on Fed policy outlook. The August US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.
On Fed independence, a federal judge temporarily blocked US President Donald Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The order came nearly two weeks after Cook sued Trump to prevent him from removing her from the US central bank.
President Donald Trump has urged the European Union (EU) to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods in an effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin. Washington said the Trump administration is ready to “mirror” any EU-imposed tariffs, indicating the US could raise duties on Indian and Chinese imports to a comparable level.
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