US Dollar Index rises to near 99.00 on fading Fed rate cut odds, Powell’s speech awaited

• US Dollar Index appreciates ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

• Fed rate cut odds ease following the US Purchasing Managers’ Index data and Initial Jobless Claims.

• Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated there is currently no case for cutting interest rates.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its gains for the second successive session and trading around 98.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming to gain clues on the September policy outlook.

The US Dollar appreciates amid easing odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September, driven by strong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and rising Initial Jobless Claims data from the United States (US). According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate reduction in September, down from 82% on Wednesday.

The preliminary S&P Global US Composite PMI inched higher to 55.4 in August, from 55.1 prior. Meanwhile, the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 from 49.8 prior, surpassing the market consensus of 49.5. Services PMI eased to 55.4 from 55.7 previous reading, but was stronger than the 54.2 expected. Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K for the previous week, an eight-week high and above the consensus estimate of 225K, suggesting some softening in labor market conditions.

On the sidelines of the three-day symposium, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said, during an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday, "I walk into every meeting with an open mind," "But with the data I have right now and with the information I have, if the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates," Hammack said according to Reuters.

However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that September’s Fed meeting remains open for action. Goolsbee further stated that the Federal Reserve has been receiving mixed signals on the economy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled openness to a rate cut as soon as September, citing tariff headwinds and potential labor market softness, even as near-term inflation risks persist.