The US Dollar regains its safe-haven status and rallies across the board on risk aversion.
Uncertainty about US trade tariffs and their deadline keeps investors on their toes.
The minutes of the last Fed meeting are likely to challenge US Dollar's recovery later this week.
The US Dollar and the Swiss Franc are the best performers among major currencies on Monday, as investors rush for safety, anxious that Trump’s tariffs will cause a significant disruption in global trade.
Between them, however, the Dollar is showing a mild advantage. The USD/CHF advances to levels right above 0.7970, yet still below the 0.8000 psychological level and less than 100 pips above the 14-year low, at 0.7875, hit last week.
The US president announced over the weekend that he will send letters to some countries specifying the tariffs that will be applied to their products, but did not clarify to which countries or when those levies come into effect, as Treasury Secretary Beseent flagged a deadline extension, from the original July 9 to August 1.
The Grenback is acting as a safe-haven on Monday, but it is unclear whether these dynamics will be sustained. Fears about higher tariffs have been hammering the US Dollar during previous months as traders weigh risks that a negative impact on growth and upside risks to inflation stemming from higher costs for imported products. might lead to a stagflationary context.
These fears, however, seem to have faded, at least for now, as a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report released last week restored confidence in the US economic momentum and curbed expectations of any imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Later this week, the minutes of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting are likely to challenge the US Dollar's recovery. Some voices within the committee have been calling for an easier monetary policy, and the minutes might reflect those discrepancies. If that is the case, they might act as a headwind for USD’s recovery.
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