Bitcoin 4-Year CAGR Rebounds To 31% – $168K By October?

Bitcoinist
Updated
Mitrade
coverImg
Source: DepositPhotos

Bitcoin is holding above key support levels as it continues to consolidate just below the $112,000 all-time high. Despite bullish momentum building across the broader crypto market, BTC has struggled to reclaim this critical resistance level, keeping traders on edge. Analysts agree that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm the uptrend and signal the start of a new expansion phase.

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the recent recovery in Bitcoin’s 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) highlights a shift in long-term market sentiment. After plunging to just 7% in April—reflecting compressed margins and cycle exhaustion—the CAGR has now rebounded to around 31%, which falls into what analysts consider the “strong zone.” This resurgence came as BTC’s price rallied back toward $110,000 by May–June 2025, reviving hopes for a sustained bullish trend.

Although the current growth rate remains below historic cycle peaks of 50–80%, the market’s structure and on-chain dynamics suggest there’s still plenty of room for upside. As Bitcoin holds its ground and market conditions stabilize, the stage may be set for a decisive breakout—one that could confirm the uptrend and drive BTC into price discovery once again.

Bitcoin Gears Up For Price Discovery As Fundamentals Strengthen

Bitcoin is on the verge of entering price discovery, with the asset trading just below its all-time high near $112,000. After weeks of consolidation and steady higher lows, this week could prove decisive for the entire crypto market. A breakout above resistance would signal the start of a new, explosive phase, while a pullback to sweep liquidity below remains a valid risk if momentum stalls. Either way, the market is preparing for a significant move.

This critical moment comes amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. economy continues to show signs of systemic stress, driven by elevated Treasury yields, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, underpinned by improving long-term fundamentals.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from CryptoQuant, pointing to the rebound in Bitcoin’s 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). After falling to just 7% in April—signaling a severely compressed market—the CAGR has recovered to 31% by June 2025, entering what Adler calls the “strong zone.” This rebound coincided with Bitcoin’s climb back toward $110,000, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin Secular Valuation & Margin Drivers | Source: Axel Adler on X

While 31% remains below historic peak CAGRs of 50–80%, Adler notes that the backdrop is favorable. If futures market momentum and leverage continue to build, he projects that Bitcoin could reach $168,000 as early as October 2025. For now, all eyes are on BTC’s next move because whichever direction it breaks, it will likely set the tone for the rest of the year.

BTC Consolidates Below ATH: Market Awaits Next Move

Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,259 on the daily chart after a minor 1.31% pullback from the $109,300 resistance level. The price action shows BTC forming a range between $103,600 (support) and $109,300 (resistance), with multiple rejections from the upper boundary. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to hold above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $102,998, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact for now.

BTC consolidates below ATH | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

This consolidation comes after BTC rebounded sharply from the $103,600 support zone earlier this month. The structure is still constructive, but bulls need to reclaim and hold above the $109,300 level to challenge the $112K all-time high and push into price discovery. Failure to do so could lead to a retest of $103,600, where liquidity is likely concentrated.

Volume remains relatively stable, though slightly lower on this latest leg up, hinting that momentum is cooling. That said, as long as BTC holds above the key moving averages and does not close below $103,600, the bullish structure is preserved.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only.  This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.

goTop
quote
Do you find this article useful?
Related Articles
placeholder
Solana’s first spot staking ETF launched with $33 million in trading volumeSolana’s first spot staking ETF launched with $33 million in trading volume on its debut day.
Author  Cryptopolitan
18 hours ago
Solana’s first spot staking ETF launched with $33 million in trading volume on its debut day.
placeholder
Cardano Price Forecast: ADA recovery holds steady despite SEC halt on Grayscale GDLC approvalCardano (ADA) price is holding steady near $0.58 at the time of writing on Thursday after rebounding nearly 8% in the previous session.
Author  FXStreet
18 hours ago
Cardano (ADA) price is holding steady near $0.58 at the time of writing on Thursday after rebounding nearly 8% in the previous session.
placeholder
Ethereum Price Pops Above $2,550 — Can It Avoid a Quick Reversal?ETH is now back above $2,550 and struggling to clear the $2,620 barrier.
Author  NewsBTC
20 hours ago
ETH is now back above $2,550 and struggling to clear the $2,620 barrier.
placeholder
Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally as crypto market rebounds Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to $109,000 on Wednesday as the US agreement with Vietnam and a rise in the global M2 money supply.
Author  FXStreet
22 hours ago
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to $109,000 on Wednesday as the US agreement with Vietnam and a rise in the global M2 money supply.
placeholder
Bitcoin Active Supply Down 17%: Here’s What Followed Last TimeOn-chain data shows Bitcoin activity has seen a major cooldown over the past month.
Author  FXStreet
22 hours ago
On-chain data shows Bitcoin activity has seen a major cooldown over the past month.
Real-time Quote