Bitcoin 4-Year CAGR Rebounds To 31% – $168K By October?

Bitcoin is holding above key support levels as it continues to consolidate just below the $112,000 all-time high. Despite bullish momentum building across the broader crypto market, BTC has struggled to reclaim this critical resistance level, keeping traders on edge. Analysts agree that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm the uptrend and signal the start of a new expansion phase.

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the recent recovery in Bitcoin’s 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) highlights a shift in long-term market sentiment. After plunging to just 7% in April—reflecting compressed margins and cycle exhaustion—the CAGR has now rebounded to around 31%, which falls into what analysts consider the “strong zone.” This resurgence came as BTC’s price rallied back toward $110,000 by May–June 2025, reviving hopes for a sustained bullish trend.

Although the current growth rate remains below historic cycle peaks of 50–80%, the market’s structure and on-chain dynamics suggest there’s still plenty of room for upside. As Bitcoin holds its ground and market conditions stabilize, the stage may be set for a decisive breakout—one that could confirm the uptrend and drive BTC into price discovery once again.

Bitcoin Gears Up For Price Discovery As Fundamentals Strengthen

Bitcoin is on the verge of entering price discovery, with the asset trading just below its all-time high near $112,000. After weeks of consolidation and steady higher lows, this week could prove decisive for the entire crypto market. A breakout above resistance would signal the start of a new, explosive phase, while a pullback to sweep liquidity below remains a valid risk if momentum stalls. Either way, the market is preparing for a significant move.

This critical moment comes amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. economy continues to show signs of systemic stress, driven by elevated Treasury yields, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s structure remains strong, underpinned by improving long-term fundamentals.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from CryptoQuant, pointing to the rebound in Bitcoin’s 4-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). After falling to just 7% in April—signaling a severely compressed market—the CAGR has recovered to 31% by June 2025, entering what Adler calls the “strong zone.” This rebound coincided with Bitcoin’s climb back toward $110,000, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

While 31% remains below historic peak CAGRs of 50–80%, Adler notes that the backdrop is favorable. If futures market momentum and leverage continue to build, he projects that Bitcoin could reach $168,000 as early as October 2025. For now, all eyes are on BTC’s next move because whichever direction it breaks, it will likely set the tone for the rest of the year.

BTC Consolidates Below ATH: Market Awaits Next Move

Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,259 on the daily chart after a minor 1.31% pullback from the $109,300 resistance level. The price action shows BTC forming a range between $103,600 (support) and $109,300 (resistance), with multiple rejections from the upper boundary. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to hold above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $102,998, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact for now.

This consolidation comes after BTC rebounded sharply from the $103,600 support zone earlier this month. The structure is still constructive, but bulls need to reclaim and hold above the $109,300 level to challenge the $112K all-time high and push into price discovery. Failure to do so could lead to a retest of $103,600, where liquidity is likely concentrated.

Volume remains relatively stable, though slightly lower on this latest leg up, hinting that momentum is cooling. That said, as long as BTC holds above the key moving averages and does not close below $103,600, the bullish structure is preserved.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView