FOMC Preview: Bitcoin At Risk As Fed Prepares Market-Shaking Decision

All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tomorrow, March 19, with a rate decision that many analysts believe could set the tone for global risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), for the months ahead. Markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, but the real driver of volatility could be the central bank’s updated Dot Plot—a key measure of policymakers’ rate projections.

What Bitcoin Investors Need To Know

Although the consensus is that the Fed will not move rates this time, the Dot Plot may reveal how many cuts are likely for the remainder of the year. Many market participants are bracing for anywhere between one and three cuts.

Three cuts would signal a more aggressive pivot toward easing, often viewed as bullish for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Two cuts are generally seen as a neutral scenario, implying a balanced policy approach. One cut or fewer could be interpreted as bearish, underscoring the possibility that the Fed may stay tight longer than markets expect.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the press about 30 minutes after the rate announcement, providing further insights into the central bank’s thinking. Of particular interest to Bitcoin and traditional investors alike is any hint regarding the potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Recent speculation suggests that if Powell signals a wind-down—or even a shift back to asset purchases—market sentiment could improve “significantly,” as one senior strategist noted.

Kyledoops, a widely followed technical analyst, noted, “Polymarket is pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed ends QT before May. If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast. But knowing Powell, he’ll keep it as vague as possible.”

Prominent crypto commentators are issuing mixed yet intense warnings about the volatility that could be unleashed once the Fed’s plans become clear. Cobak (@CobakOfficial) wrote on X: “A big move is coming soon! BTC has major liquidation clusters at $81,640 & $84,800. With the FOMC rate decision approaching, where will Bitcoin head first?”

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) expressed a cautiously bullish view but expects further “chop” until the announcement: “Weekly open below, target still above, still expecting further chop until FOMC. Range scenario continuing to play out and eyes on weekly open as I wouldn’t be surprised that gets tapped. Also FOMC meeting in two days, which fully confirms our bottom call scenario.”

He further elaborated that the best prices for trades often come around the FOMC meeting itself, observing: “It just induces more low conviction traders… which is another reason why the best prices (tops and bottoms) come right before and right after FOMC… As you know, the candles open is always a strong characteristic of the current situation.”

On potential targets for Bitcoin, Astronomer indicated he’s watching the $80,900 zone for “more longs,” while also suggesting a scenario where BTC could surge toward $87,000 if it breaks out above weekly open levels.

ING Sees Weakening Growth

Banking giant ING, in a recent note, highlighted an evolving macro picture clouded by President Trump’s policy priorities: “After 100bp of interest rate cuts in late 2024, Chair Powell suggests that the Fed aren’t in a hurry to ease policy further and a no change outcome is widely expected on 19 March. But President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are hurting growth prospects and will likely force the central bank’s hand in the second half of 2025.”

ING underscores that while the Fed is not currently under immediate pressure to reduce rates—given still-solid employment numbers and inflation “tracking hot”—mounting downside risks could shift the balance of policymaking: “Disappointing economic data and President Trump showing no sign of wavering in his commitment to these policies has led equity markets to take a dimmer view on the prospects for the economy… We therefore expect the Fed to largely retain their forecasts… with two 25bp rate cuts this year. Nonetheless, the outlook for growth is cooling and the pressure for the Fed to offer more support to the economy will likely grow.”

At press time, BTC traded at $81,725.