WTI recovers to near $72.50 as fear of wider Middle East conflict spurs buying
■ WTI price rebounds near $72.50 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
■ Fear of a wider Middle East war might cap the WTI’s downside in the near term.
■ Worries over Chinese demand might drag the price lower.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.50 on Thursday. WTI price recovers its recent losses amid concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, deteriorating macroeconomics might cap the upside for black gold in the near term.
Fear of a wider Middle East conflict boosts the WTI price. Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel and the US following the assassination of two militant leaders has sparked fears of a broader Middle East conflict, potentially affecting oil supplies from the region, per Reuters.
The optimistic report from the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report might provide some support for the WTI price. The EIA raised its forecast for crude oil demand in the US, expecting consumption to average 20.5 million barrels per day in 2024, up from the forecast in July of 20.4 million bpd. However, the agency revised down its average oil price forecasts for this year and 2025, citing recent declines precipitated by economic concerns.
About the data, crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending August 2 increased by 180K barrels, compared to -4.495 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 4.495 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday. "Oil fundamentals are still suggesting an undersupplied oil market, with oil inventories still falling," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
On the other hand, sluggish Chinese demand could weigh on the WTI price as China is the top largest consumer of oil in the world. The Chinese Trade Balance is due on Wednesday, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Friday. The CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.3% YoY in July, compared to the previous reading of 0.2%. Oil traders will take cues from these reports and find trading opportunities surrounding the WTI price.
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