SpaceX Stock Finally Breaks Out of a 30-Day Price Dump, Will It Last?
SpaceX (SPCX) stock traded back above its $135 IPO price on Monday for the first time in nearly a month. Shares changed hands near $138, up more than 4%, according to TradingView data.
Two forces collided to get it there. Deutsche Bank doubled down on the company’s boldest revenue promise, just as small investors quietly began cashing out.
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Deutsche Bank Maps the Road to $100 Billion
SpaceX wants to reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by December. ARR projects the latest repeat sales over a full year.
The target sounds extreme. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu argues it can happen.
“As a baseline, 2Q’s [ARR] run-rate was just $31 billion, meaning management is aiming to more than triple that in just six months. We see this target as likely very achievable, driven mainly by neocloud and Cursor contribution,” Yu made the case in a Monday note, alongside a Buy rating and $235 price target.
The engine is neocloud, SpaceX’s business of renting AI computing power to outside customers. One client, the AI developer Anthropic, paid $1.6 billion last quarter. Yu expects that to jump to $3.75 billion this quarter.
$SPCX reported $1.6B in Q2 revenues from the AI capacity deals (Anthropic) while total AI revenue was only up $1.75B QoQ. https://t.co/gy4RUnxr14
— Stone Fox Capital (@Stonefoxcapital) August 4, 2026
Google’s deal reaches $920 million per month by October. A new $6.7 billion contract, possibly with the US government, ramps at the same time. Yu sees these deals producing $45 billion to $50 billion in ARR by December. Cursor, the AI coding startup, drives another leg.
Elon Musk already holds a trillion-dollar revenue target for 2030.
$SPCX – SPACEX’S $100B REVENUE TARGET SEEN WITHIN REACHDeutsche Bank says SpaceX’s goal of reaching $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by year-end appears achievable.Analysts estimate cloud-computing deals with Anthropic, Google and other customers could generate…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 10, 2026
However, cost is the catch. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital projects last quarter, per its first quarterly earnings report. Wall Street had expected about $6 billion, with similar outlays signaled through year-end.
Retail Sells SpaceX Stock While Wall Street Stays Bullish
Small investors picked this rally to step back. They sold a net $4.5 million of SPCX on Friday, Vanda Research told Reuters. It marked their first net selling since the June 12 listing.
The signal outweighs the size. Retail buyers took at least 30% of the shares offered at the IPO. Their best single buying day hit $144.6 million in June. Friday’s trickle still ended a two-month streak.
Sam North, market analyst at trading platform eToro, reads it as discipline rather than fear.
“Friday is particularly interesting because retail turned net sellers while the shares were rebounding strongly and trading back around the IPO price. That looks more like investors using strength to take some money off the table than panic selling.”
The math supports him. Retail’s average entry sits near $147, Vanda estimates, so selling near $135 trims losses into strength. The same crowd bought heavily during the post-earnings stock slide on August 5, when shares sank 13.6%.
The stock has earned that caution. It peaked at $225.61 in June, 67% above the IPO price, then hit $104.83 on August 3. Roughly 911.5 million insider shares became tradable last week as the lockup overhang lifted. The float more than doubled, yet the rally held.
Wall Street keeps buying the story regardless. SPCX holds a Moderate Buy consensus from 31 analysts, per TipRanks. The average target of $229.33 implies roughly 66% upside. Yet targets span $75 to $800, showing deep disagreement over what SpaceX is worth.
Third-quarter results will settle the argument. They will show whether the Anthropic and Google deals grow as fast as Yu’s math requires. Until then, cautious retail money and bold analyst targets will keep pulling the stock in opposite directions.
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