XRP may need financial institutions to buy it before its price can surpass $3 once again.
So far, they don't seem to want to own a lot of it.
ETFs could potentially be big buyers, but that hasn't happened yet either.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) could pass $3 by or before 2030, a little more than three years from now. If it happens, it'll most likely be because people want to speculate on the direction of the price itself, rather than because of the coin's fundamentals. At a price of $1.33 on Oct. 14, the coin needs a 125.6% gain to reach $3, which isn't an unreasonable amount at all under the right set of conditions. After all, the coin has been priced above $3 for a few brief periods in the past, including in mid-2025.
So who will do the buying? Here's my prediction for the roster.
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With 63.1 billion XRP circulating right now, a $3 price implies a $189.4 billion market cap, or about $105.6 billion higher than today's market cap of $83.8 billion.
For XRP to hit $3 by 2030, buyers must also absorb some of the 36.9 billion coins that are not yet circulating. Ripple, XRP's issuer, unlocks up to 1 billion XRP from escrow each month and relocks all but 272 million of it on average.
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold XRP for brokerage investors, are the first group of buyers likely to contribute to any big price increases in the coin over time. They held $1.8 billion in net assets as of Oct. 14. When investors are broadly bullish about the coin, capital will then flow into these funds, but it's unlikely to happen on its own without a catalyst or an already-boosted general sentiment.
Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, public businesses that are built to hold a coin, could also become buyers, though on a modest scale. Evernorth, the DAT that's backed by Ripple, has 473 million XRP in its coffers, worth $677 million. However, Evernorth can only sell new shares to buy XRP without diluting shareholders while its stock is valued above its holdings.
What's conspicuously missing from the roster above is a strong reason for any of the potential buying groups to want to own more XRP than they do today, beyond a bet that the coin will eventually become as useful as its issuer, Ripple, says it will. The trouble is that the coin still does not have a reliable product-market fit, despite being around for quite a few years now.
Ripple originally proposed XRP as a bridge currency, but now its RLUSD stablecoin can do the job in busy currency corridors where XRP isn't required. It isn't in hot demand from financial companies that use Ripple's suite of financial services, either.
Those things could well change. But for now, even if XRP is more likely to go to $3 by 2030 than not, I don't think it's worth buying.
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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.