Here's What History Says Q4 Will Bring for Chipotle (CMG) Stock

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) is a restaurant industry pioneer. It popularized the fast-casual dining concept. The focus on fresh, customizable food, fast service, and reasonable prices has made the business a household name.

Shares have been feeling the heat. As of Oct. 14, they have fallen 18% in 2026 and are 56% off their record from June 2024. The rest of the year may tell a different story.

Here's what history says the fourth quarter will bring for this restaurant stock.

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Past trends reveal mixed performance

This decade, the performance of Chipotle's shares has been up and down in Q4. In the fourth quarters of 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, the stock fell by single digits. However, in 2020 (+12%) and 2023 (+25%), shares posted double-digit returns. So far this month, they have dropped by over 4%. Q4 2026 is off to a slow start.

At the same time, the S&P 500 index has climbed almost 1%. The positive view is that by the end of this year, Chipotle will end Q4 with a strong gain. This will continue the every-three-year streak, as the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2023 saw winning results.

Navigating a weaker industry

As mentioned, Chipotle shares have been cut by more than half since the summer of 2024. At that time, it was clear that the stock was extremely expensive. It traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 73.2. Expectations were sky-high. That's not surprising, given that net income surged 183% from first-quarter 2021 to Q1 2024. The business was hitting its stride.

In recent years, Chipotle has been rattled by weaker conditions in the industry. The fast-casual segment, and the overall restaurant sector, have seen consumers pull back, particularly among households making less than $100,000 in annual income.

Furthermore, making food at home has become a more cost-conscious decision. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data from 2025, the value proposition of buying groceries widened compared to eating out.

In 2025, Chipotle reported a rare same-store sales (SSS) decline of 1.7%. That improved to a gain of 0.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in the second quarter (ended June 30) of this year. The leadership team expects SSS to rise in the low single digits for the full year.

Profitability has come under pressure. Costs have increased due to labor and food inflation. The unit-level operating margin was 25.2% in the most recent quarter. That's down 220 basis points from the same period last year.

In order to right the ship and position the business for faster growth, Chipotle is investing in menu enhancements, the in-store dining experience, digital reach, and marketing efforts to drive foot traffic. Capital expenditures were $397.6 billion through the first six months of 2026, up 30% year over year. This hits free cash flow directly.

The stock might be cheap for a reason

It can be hard for Chipotle to attract investor interest at a time when it seems everyone is enamored by artificial intelligence stocks. These enterprises can promise faster growth and bigger gains. The Tex-Mex chain has to compete with that.

For what it's worth, Chipotle's valuation has become more attractive. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 28.2, which is near a 10-year low. Expectations have fallen due to the company's softer financial results.

This is a high-quality business, though. Its brand is arguably the strongest in the fast-casual space. Its 4,186 company-owned stores give it tremendous scale. It keeps growing, with 350 to 370 net new openings scheduled for this year. Profits are consistent; the average quarterly operating margin in the past five years was 15.8%.

That combination should keep Chipotle on your radar. However, the future might not be as robust as the past was. Consensus analyst forecasts call for earnings per share to grow at just 8.6% per year from 2025 to 2028. This is significantly below the 21.2% annualized pace of the previous three years. Investors need to temper their expectations.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short December 2026 $38 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.