Axon Just Delivered a Huge Beat-and-Raise. So Why Is the Stock Down?

Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON) stepped up to deliver its second-quarter earnings report after hours on Wednesday and reported another smash hit.

Revenue growth topped 30% for the tenth quarter in a row, coming in at 35% to reach $904 million, which was well ahead of estimates at $876.5 million.

The law enforcement technology company, which is best known for the TASER electrical weapon, delivered strong top-line growth across the board, with TASER revenue up 21% to $261.3 million. Platform solutions jumped 123% to $149.8 million, driven by strong growth in its drone business, and software and services revenue was up 36% to $397.8 million, including 700% growth in the AI Era plan, a subscription service for Axon's AI tools.

On the bottom line, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 40% to $242 million, and adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.88, ahead of estimates of $1.84. Axon also reported generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) EPS of $0.29.

In addition to the strong quarterly results, Axon also lifted its full-year revenue guidance, calling for growth of 32%-34% compared to an earlier range of 30%-32%. It maintained adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 25.5%.

Beating estimates and raising guidance is typically the kind of quarter that leads to a stock surging; however, that wasn't the case for Axon. The stock rose briefly in the after-hours period, but within minutes it turned red, falling as much as 9% during the session.

So what's the rub here? Let's dig a little deeper.

Image source: Axon.

Why Axon's report wasn't good enough

Axon is facing a number of structural headwinds that make it harder for the stock to move higher on a strong earnings report alone.

First, it's expensive, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of around 15 and a price-to-earnings ratio of close to 100 based on adjusted earnings. That ratio is much higher when using GAAP earnings.

As a software company, Axon has also been under pressure from the "SaaSpocalypse," though software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks have bounced back from earlier lows. Axon is much less vulnerable to disruption from AI-native platforms like Anthropic than enterprise SaaS companies, but the AI revolution has led investors to reevaluate the sector.

With high-priced stocks, investors often want to see a flawless earnings report, and some numbers were moving in the wrong direction.

Axon reported a decline in adjusted gross margin from 63.3% to 62.9%, and adjusted gross margin in software and services fell from 78.9% to 75.1%, due to a higher mix of professional services revenue and the scaling of new product offerings.

The company also withdrew its operating cash flow and free cash flow guidance without explanation, after previously guiding to $600 million and $450 million in those categories, respectively. That likely spooked investors.

Is Axon a buy?

The after-hours sell-off may not hold in regular trading tomorrow, but if it does, that's all the more reason to buy the stock.

Axon dominates its niche of law enforcement technology and has grown both organically, by updating its product line and expanding its customer base, and through acquisitions, such as Dedrone, which has provided the foundation for its drone business.

The company is growing and innovating in AI as the 700% AI Era plan growth shows, and it looks squarely focused on the future.

There's still a long growth runway for Axon, and while the valuation may be expensive, it's worth paying for a company with a wide network of competitive advantages, and that's consistently growing at 30% or more.

Jeremy Bowman has positions in Axon Enterprise. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Axon Enterprise. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.