Elon Musk Has Missed His Own Robotaxi Timelines Four Times Since 2025. Should Investors Still Believe the Next One?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has a long history of broken promises, so much so that there is an entire Wikipedia page dedicated to tracking his failed predictions.

In 2013, for example, Musk declared that Tesla "should be able to do 90% of miles driven [autonomously] within three years." That prediction was ultimately inaccurate.

In 2015, Musk doubled down by saying, "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." Again, Musk's forecasts were too ambitious.

Fast-forward through the years, and you'll find many more failed predictions from Musk regarding Tesla's self-driving future.

"I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year," he said in 2023. "The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination, and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the U.S. by the end of this year," he said in 2025. Later that year, Musk declared that there would be "no safety driver by the end of the year" for Tesla's robotaxi service in Texas.

None of these predictions has come to pass. But here's the thing: Failed predictions shouldn't prevent you from buying into Tesla's autonomous driving narrative.

In fact, one key Tesla investor is buying large blocks of stock following recent weakness in the share price. Her investment thesis relies heavily on Tesla's robotaxi division despite Musk's repeated failed predictions.

This Wall Street veteran is all-in on Tesla despite Musk's failed promises

Since the start of 2026, Tesla's stock has fallen by roughly 30%. Most of that drop occurred recently following the company's latest earnings release. Cathie Wood -- the CEO of Ark Invest, a major Tesla shareholder -- has used the correction to add to her firm's stake. In all, Wood purchased 160,000 shares worth approximately $50 million following the post-earnings drop.

Image source: Tesla.

Wood's thesis is simple: Tesla is in the driver's seat to capture a huge share of the global robotaxi market, which she predicts will be worth between $8 trillion and $10 trillion over the long term. By 2030, Wood believes Tesla's stock price will reach $2,500, with the company's robotaxi division accounting for around 90% of that value.

In short, Wood is a huge believer in Tesla's robotaxi ambitions despite Musk's repeated inability to predict the scale and pace of its self-driving technology. Wood is right to be bullish. Tesla has an unparalleled ability to produce massive numbers of robotaxis internally for its fleet. And the company's artificial intelligence (AI) investments are scaling considerably. That should be a huge differentiator in achieving full autonomy and operating a robotaxi fleet with potentially millions of vehicles.

"We think $8 trillion to $10 trillion for the entire autonomous taxi opportunity throughout the world, from almost nothing," Wood predicted in 2025. Her bullishness was largely based on how rapidly AI is accelerating self-driving technology. "That's how quickly AI is going to cause these things to happen," she stressed.

Most of Musk's earlier predictions about Tesla's autonomous future didn't benefit as directly from rapid advances in AI. And while I won't necessarily trust his next prediction, AI is undeniably accelerating the pace and timeline of self-driving technologies. McKinsey & Co sees robotaxis reaching mass scale in many key markets by 2030. Tesla arguably has the pole position to compete heavily in that market.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.