【US Pre-Market】Microsoft, Meta Earnings in Focus as Fed Decision Looms; Oil Surges Nearly 5%

TradingKey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, U.S. stock index futures were mixed in pre-market trading. Market focus is centered on the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision as well as after-hours earnings from Microsoft and Meta; meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, and U.S. Treasury yields ticked up, keeping risk appetite cautious.

As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.32%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.22%.

Performance of the three major U.S. stock index futures, Source: Investing

In commodities, gold ( XAUUSD) weakened slightly to around $4,030, while international oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI ( USOIL) crude rising nearly 5% to return to around $83; Brent crude rose over 3%, climbing above $85. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched joint strikes against pro-Iranian militants in Iraq, after Iranian missiles targeting U.S. forces in Jordan were intercepted, leading the market to price back in the risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Market Movers

Seagate Technology ( STX) rose nearly 6% premarket. The company's adjusted earnings per share for the fourth fiscal quarter were $5.71, beating the market estimate of $5.10; revenue was $3.6 billion, also exceeding the market expectation of $3.5 billion. Seagate expects its next fiscal quarter revenue to reach $4.1 billion, stronger than market expectations, with AI data center storage demand serving as the primary driver of growth. Western Digital ( WDC) rose over 3% premarket.

Ford Motor ( F) rose nearly 5% premarket. The company's second-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.42, beating the market estimate of $0.36; second-quarter revenue was $48.3 billion. Although the company recorded a GAAP net loss, primarily dragged down by EV-related expenses, Ford raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion, up from the previous forecast of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.

Teradyne ( TER) rose over 7% premarket. The company's second-quarter revenue rose to $1.33 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $1.22 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.47, higher than the market consensus of $2.09. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.85 to $2.15, both indicating that demand for AI-related semiconductor test equipment remains resilient.

Semiconductor stocks showed mixed performance premarket. Nvidia ( NVDA) was flat, AMD ( AMD) rose slightly, Intel ( INTC) rose over 1%; however, Skyworks ( SWKS) fell nearly 10% premarket, and Applied Materials ( AMAT) fell over 3%. The market continues to digest Chinese semiconductor competition, AI funding models, and valuation pressure on memory chips.

Market News

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its July interest rate decision. While the market widely expects the target range for the federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, CME FedWatch shows there is still a nearly 30% probability betting on a 25-basis-point rate hike at this meeting. Investors are focused on whether Chair Kevin Warsh will signal a more hawkish stance in response to rebounding oil prices, the AI investment boom, and inflation risks.

Middle East tensions flared up again, driving oil prices sharply higher. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia conducted joint strikes against pro-Iranian militants in Iraq, following an intercepted ballistic missile attack by Iran on U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. Meanwhile, Iran rejected a proposal by Oman to control the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting market concerns over shipping and energy supply risks.

The U.S. government will provide GlobalFoundries ( GFS) with $300 million in funding. The funds will support research and development in silicon photonics and co-packaged optics to enhance chip-to-chip data transfer speeds and energy efficiency in AI data centers. GlobalFoundries stated that the related R&D will be conducted at its facilities in Malta, New York, and Burlington, Vermont.

Microsoft ( MSFT) and Meta ( META) are scheduled to report earnings after the close. Wall Street is highly focused on the growth rate of Microsoft's Azure cloud business, AI capital expenditure plans, and whether Meta's advertising business can continue to demonstrate commercial returns on its AI investments.

Key Data and Events Preview

At 10:30 AM ET on July 29, the US will release the EIA crude oil inventories, with market expectations of a 700,000-barrel increase, compared to a previous increase of 2.01 million barrels.

At 2:00 PM ET on July 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision and the FOMC statement.

At 2:30 PM ET on July 29, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference.