Tesla Stock Breaks Down After Worst Week Since 2022, Charts Point to $296
Tesla (TSLA) stock closed last week at $313.03, down nearly 18% in five sessions and its steepest weekly loss since 2022. Two separate chart breakdowns now point to $296 as the next downside target.
The selloff erased the $350 support zone after second-quarter results paired record revenue with a steep profit miss. Early premarket quotes on Monday suggested a modest rebound attempt toward $321.
Earnings Miss Set Off the Slide
Tesla reported $28.24 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 26% year over year and above estimates. However, adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share missed the $0.51 consensus, and operating margin sank to 1.4%.
Capital spending jumped 142% to $5.79 billion as the company funneled cash into artificial intelligence, Optimus robots, and robotaxi production. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time since early 2024.
Some on Wall Street see the reaction as overdone. Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives called the capex surge a timing problem rather than a broken thesis, telling CNBC:
“This is an arms race that’s playing out and we’re only 15% of the way through.”
Other analysts remain split on whether patience with the AI story justifies the current valuation while margins compress.
Weekly Chart Loses $350 as Trendline Test Begins
The weekly chart shows the scale of the damage. Last week’s candle fell 17.81%, slicing through the $350 zone that had acted as support since September 2025. That zone now flips into resistance.
Price currently sits on an ascending trendline drawn from the 2024 lows, a line that has defined Tesla’s broader uptrend for more than two years. A weekly close below it would mark a structural break, not just a correction.
Below the trendline, the next significant demand zone rests around $260, an area that produced strong reversals in 2024 and 2025. Overhead, $470 remains the major ceiling that has capped every rally since late 2024.
Historically, a bullish cup and handle pattern projected a $759 target for TSLA. That scenario only activates on a confirmed weekly close above $470, which now looks distant.
Tesla Stock Price Prediction Puts $296 in Play
The daily chart delivers the more immediate signal. Since the May highs near $455, TSLA traded inside a descending parallel channel, respecting both boundaries for almost three months.
On July 23, the day after earnings, the price broke below the channel’s lower boundary and the $350 zone in a single move. The session printed the highest daily volume in months, which suggests conviction behind the breakdown rather than a shakeout.
The measured move from the channel breakdown projects a target of $296.16, roughly 5% below Friday’s close. That level also sits just under the weekly trendline, making the $296 to $310 area the key battleground this week.
If sellers push through $296, the door opens toward the $260 demand zone, another 12% lower. In contrast, bulls would need to reclaim $350 and re-enter the channel to invalidate the bearish structure.
The next catalyst may not be technical. Any concrete progress on robotaxi economics or an Optimus firm timeline could shift sentiment faster than the chart suggests. Until then, Tesla stock trades between a broken channel above and a two-year trendline below, and one of them has to give.
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