The Closest IPO Parallel to SpaceX Is Not Tesla But This Stock
SpaceX stock (SPCX) is now worth less than it was on day one. Shares closed near $115 last week. That is about 15% below the $135 price the company set for its June 12 debut.
Anyone buying at the listing is underwater. The obvious question is whether it comes back, and there is one good place to look for the answer.
What Just Happened to SpaceX Stock
SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each. That raised almost $75 billion and valued the company near $1.77 trillion, according to its prospectus.
The start was strong. Shares opened at $150 and closed the first day around $161. By June 16 they hit $225.64.
Then the mood turned. The stock fell 6.7% on July 22 to $115.26. That is roughly 49% below the June high.
The company is now worth about $1.52 trillion. An earlier part of the slide had already wiped $500 billion from Musk’s fortune.
Three things went wrong at once:
Starship slipped
Rival Blue Origin raised new money, and
China caught a rocket booster.
That last one stung. On July 10, China landed a Long March 10B booster in a net on a sea platform. It became only the second country to bring an orbital booster home. SpaceX did it first in December 2015, so China is about a decade behind.
Peter Schiff called the drop a broader market crash warning. Now, IPO investors are sitting on nearly 20% loss.
BREAKING: SpaceX hits a NEW ALL-TIME LOW, wiping out $1.515 trillion from its market cap in just 27 trading days.IPO buyers are now sitting on an 18.5% loss. pic.twitter.com/TqtX5c28N3
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 27, 2026
Why Two Dates in August Matter So Much
SpaceX reports earnings for the first time on August 4. Two trading days later, on August 6, a lot of shares become sellable.
Here is why that matters. When a company lists, insiders sign a lock-up. It stops them selling for a set period.
SpaceX built its lock-up around earnings instead of the calendar. Once results are out, up to 911.5 million shares are free to trade.
Elon Musk is not one of the sellers. His shares are locked for 366 days, with no early exit, so he cannot sell until June 2027.
JUST IN: Elon Musk locks up 100% of his SpaceX $SPCX holdings for 366 days
— Gemini (@Gemini) June 2, 2026
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The Huge Batch of Shares That Will Not Be Sold
A second batch of 455.8 million shares was also lined up for August. Almost nobody has noticed that it will not arrive.
Those shares only unlock if the stock trades 30% above the IPO price. In cash terms, that means $175.50.
It has to close there on five of the 10 days ending on the earnings date. The stock is near $115, so it cannot happen.
The fall has therefore cut the amount of stock hitting the market. Roughly half the expected August supply is already gone.
Why Meta Fits Better Than Tesla
Most people compare SpaceX to Tesla. That comparison does not work.
Tesla listed in June 2010. It sold 13.3 million shares at $17 and raised $226 million. SpaceX raised about 330 times more.
Facebook, now Meta, is the better match. It priced at $38 in May 2012 and raised $16 billion.
Both put the founder firmly in charge. Musk holds 82.4% of the voting power at SpaceX while owning less than half the shares.
He does it with a second class of stock worth 10 votes each. Ordinary shares get one vote.
Small investors piled into both deals. Early reports said SpaceX would give retail buyers 30% of the offering. CNBC later reported the real figure came in at just over 20%.
| SpaceX, 2026 | Meta, 2012 | Tesla, 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPO price | $135.00 | $38.00 | $17.00 |
| Money raised | $75.0B | $16.0B | $226M |
| Value at listing | $1.77T | $104B | About $2B |
| First-day close | $161, up 19% | $38.23, up 0.6% | $23.89, up 41% |
| Founder voting power | 82.4% | Majority | None special |
| Worst fall below IPO price | 15% so far | 53.3% | Recovered fast |
| Time to get back to IPO price | Pending | 14.5 months | Weeks |
What Meta’s Lock-Up Actually Did to the Stock
This is the part worth remembering. Meta went through the same fear in 2012, twice.
The first unlock came on August 16, 2012, covering 271 million shares. The stock fell 6.3% that day.
The second was far bigger. On November 14, 2012, some 1.19 billion shares came free.
The stock went up 12.6%. The biggest wave of selling turned into the best day.
The damage had already been done in advance. Meta bottomed on September 4, 2012, closing at $17.73. That was 53.3% below its IPO price, more than three times the fall SpaceX holders have seen.
“This is an example of why it’s so dangerous to rush into buying a heavily hyped IPO during its first few days of trading,” Peter Schiff noted.
What Would Turn SpaceX Stock Around
Meta did not recover on hope. It recovered on one number.
On July 24, 2013, it reported that mobile made up about 41% of its ad sales. Three quarters earlier the figure was near 14%.
Revenue grew 53% in a year. The stock jumped almost 30% the next day.
It finally closed back above $38 on August 2, 2013. That took 14.5 months.
SpaceX needs a number of its own. Starlink profits, launch numbers, and Starship progress are the candidates.
Analysts cannot agree on what any of it is worth. Their price targets run from $156 all the way to $239.
Morgan Stanley says a drop to $100 would price the company’s AI work at almost nothing. Chart watchers point to a falling wedge pattern that often breaks upward.
Cathie Wood still calls SpaceX her favorite long-term holding. Meanwhile Google’s SpaceX stake stays locked up for longer.
Meta took 14.5 months and one very good earnings report. SpaceX gets its first shot at that on August 4, two days before the selling can start.
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