If SpaceX Stock Falls Below $100, One Analyst Shares This Warning

As of early-morning trading on July 27, the Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price was trading below $110 per share. As it opened at $150 when it began trading to the public on June 12, this may not be the early result some shareholders were expecting.

With SpaceX set to report 2026 second-quarter earnings on Aug. 4, there's concern that some insiders may sell their shares, putting more downward pressure on the stock price. If SpaceX's stock price were to fall to $100, however, one analyst has a warning about what that would represent.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Is SpaceX oversold?

In a note shared by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote to clients about a disconnect between investing sentiment around SpaceX and its fundamentals. And if the SpaceX stock price falls below $100 per share, it may be a warning that investors are undervaluing, or not valuing at all, SpaceX's artificial intelligence (AI) efforts.

"Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor," Jonas wrote in the note. "Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business."

Grok is an AI chatbot that was formerly a part of one of Elon Musk's other companies, xAI, which SpaceX acquired in February. To bolster its AI capabilities even further, SpaceX entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Cursor, an AI coding and software platform, in an all-stock transaction valued at $60 billion. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

With where the stock is trading, Jonas added in his note that, "We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point."

The upside and risks ahead

According to Bloomberg data, 80% of analysts covering the company recommend buying shares. And with an average price target of $232, that suggests SpaceX may indeed be undervalued.

In addition to Grok and Cursor, SpaceX is also building out AI infrastructure assets, which are helping the company generate revenue as it scales up its broader plans. Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI are all renting compute capacity from SpaceX, with the deals from just Anthropic and Alphabet potentially generating a combined $26 billion annually for SpaceX. Eventually, SpaceX plans to launch data centers in space, furthering its ability to become a leader in AI infrastructure.

Of course, the risks are plentiful.

SpaceX's orbital data centers aren't expected to start launching until 2028, and it will need to spend aggressively to commercialize AI infrastructure in space.

It already is, as its AI division is easily its most capital-intensive. SpaceX spent $12.7 billion in 2025 on its AI segment, compared to $3.8 billion on the space segment and $4.1 billion on its connectivity division. For the first quarter of 2026, capital expenditures for the AI segment were already $7.7 billion.

For what's ahead, especially depending on the second-quarter results and how many insider shares are ultimately sold, the stock price could continue to drop. The upside is certainly there, but this is still a stock meant for more aggressive investors who can handle the jarring dips in exchange for potential long-term rewards.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.