"Hope Is Not an Investment Strategy," Says the Lone Wall Street Analyst Who Hasn't Been Wrong About SpaceX

Roughly seven weeks ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's trillion-dollar artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy goliath, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (NASDAQ: SPCX), etched its name in Wall Street lore. The $85.7 billion raised from its initial public offering (IPO) nearly tripled the previous recordholder.

When SpaceX went public, it had an astonishing 21 underwriters, with Goldman Sachs leading the way. Given that underwriters typically purchase shares of the companies they bring public, it's common for these financial institutions to bestow buy ratings and lofty price targets on these businesses.

Image source: Getty Images.

Spanning seven weeks, 38 Wall Street analysts have weighed in on SpaceX. Unsurprisingly, 30 of these analysts have rated it a buy, with an additional seven chiming in with a hold-equivalent rating. But with SpaceX trading 15% below its IPO price and nearly 50% off its all-time high (as of July 24), these 37 analysts have, thus far, been wrong.

Only one Wall Street analyst has hit the nail on the head with SpaceX: CFRA Research's Keith Snyder.

"Hope is not an investment strategy"

Shortly after Musk's company debuted, Snyder issued a sell rating and a (now prescient) $115 price target. While Snyder acknowledged in a CNBC interview that he'd like to see SpaceX succeed, he firmly proclaimed that "hope is not an investment strategy."

SpaceX in IPO filing: "We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across... https://t.co/CBTpfJECik pic.twitter.com/yh54mKFlQE

-- Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 20, 2026

Specifically, CFRA's senior research analyst notes that the fundamental outlook for SpaceX doesn't match where Wall Street and retail investors were valuing the company. Snyder questioned how SpaceX arrived at its $28.5 trillion total addressable market, and he highlighted several potential speed bumps for the company, including space-based data centers and the evolution of Starship.

The SpaceX prospectus backs up this skepticism. Despite several years of positive adjusted EBITDA, Musk's company isn't yet generating recurring profits. This is a highly capital-intensive business that's prone to delays, which hasn't yet proved it's sustainable.

Image source: Getty Images.

"Musk isn't infallible"

However, the strongest argument Snyder makes against owning SpaceX stock is something that Wall Street analysts rarely tackle. In response to CNBC host Brian Sullivan's statement that investors are buying SpaceX because of the prior success of Musk in proving doubters wrong, Snyder retorted:

Musk has done incredible things. But, he's not infallible. They have a lot on their plate right now, and they have a lot of different moving parts that all are required to make this success story a reality. And they all have to go right.

Acknowledging that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk isn't perfect is something we rarely see, but it's central to the thesis of skeptics.

For example, Musk has been promising Level 5 full self-driving for Tesla's electric vehicles annually for over a decade, but this has never come to fruition. Likewise, he promised 1 million robotaxis on public roads by the end of 2020, which also failed to materialize. Musk frequently makes bold claims that end up baked into his public companies' share prices, but these visions rarely go as planned.

Put plainly, SpaceX is a "show-me stock" that's being valued as if it's proven itself for the last decade. Among a veritable sea of bulls, CFRA's Keith Snyder is the only analyst who's been right about SpaceX.

Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.