Where Is the Floor for SpaceX Stock Right Now?

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went from being the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history to one of the worst-performing IPOs in a long time. That's the market at work.

SpaceX was valued at about $1.8 trillion upon going public, but its underlying fundamentals didn't justify that valuation. Hype and hope aren't typically good investment strategies over the long term. Now that the stock has tumbled, it's time to think about when the right investment point might be.

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Let the market work

SpaceX stock has given back more than $1 trillion from its peak valuation reached less than a week after it went public. With shares recently trading at about $118, patient investors can now own the stock well below its $135 IPO price and $161 first day closing price. The question now is by how much SpaceX shares might drift lower. It's especially timely to ask that, given its first quarterly earnings report since going public is due on Aug. 4.

First, investors need to realize that SpaceX isn't going to operate like a traditional business going public. It was listed at a valuation that made no sense fundamentally. While the company had about $18 billion in 2025 revenue, those who bought shares at the IPO were looking far into the future for much higher revenue and profit potential.

That helps explain why SpaceX has performed so poorly in its short public life. According to a Barron's analysis, the stock has underperformed compared to 90% of other U.S. IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July 2009.

Wait a few days after earnings

It's hard to judge what a good valuation would be to buy into SpaceX. It has huge potential with its SpaceXAI data center business, not to mention Starship rocket launches and the possibility of orbital data centers.

So one isn't going to make it a value investment where a traditional price-to-sales (P/S) or price-to-earnings (P/E) metric applies. Whether it declines enough to reach a $1 trillion valuation -- or about $76.5 per share -- is impossible to know. But investors do have a sense of the timing that might be appropriate.

SpaceX's initial earnings report will be Aug. 4. That, of course, is an important date to remember. But that report also triggers the start of the company's unique staged lock-up expiration. The actual trading unlock happens two days later on Aug. 6.

At that point, an initial tranche of over 900 million shares will be available for early investors and employees to sell. It seems likely that some will gladly monetize their stake. That would be when I would begin buying a position in SpaceX.

And there's no reason to jump in all at once, either. Investors should review the company's earnings release and then determine a strategy for building a position after Aug. 6.

Howard Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.