Will SpaceX Land on the Moon Before 2030? Here's What Betting Markets Are Predicting Post-IPO.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is one of the most unique businesses to ever hit public markets.

Many in the general public think of the company as a rocket stock. And this is true. SpaceX is arguably the leading rocket company in the world right now, with technology and capabilities greater than any competitor.

But SpaceX is far more than a rocket company. More than 90% of the company's claimed total addressable market, for example, deals exclusively with artificial intelligence (AI). In many ways, SpaceX should be thought of as an AI company, not a rocket company.

Further still, SpaceX has dreams of making the human species interplanetary. The company's initial public offering (IPO) prospectus mentions dozens of times its intention to form colonies on planetary bodies other than Earth. According to filings, SpaceX intends to begin this process by first establishing a human base on the moon.

"Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars," SpaceX's IPO prospectus declares. "To do this, we have formed the most ambitious, vertically integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth with unmatched capabilities to rapidly manufacture and launch space-based communications that connect the world, to harness the Sun to power a truth-seeking artificial intelligence that advances scientific discovery, and ultimately to build a base on the Moon and cities on other planets."

These are bold claims. And investors would be wise to note that building a base on the Moon -- not to mention building cities on other planets -- is mentioned last in SpaceX's mission statement.

Still, the claims do raise the question: When exactly might SpaceX return humans to the moon? Statistics from betting market Kalshi give us some indication of what some people think, although these markets need to be viewed critically. Betting markets are opaque and lightly regulated, and investors shouldn't rely on them for making decisions.

Betting markets are bullish on SpaceX's moon ambitions

SpaceX's own website claims that it will conduct "cargo flights to the lunar surface for research, development, and exploratory missions ... no earlier than 2028." NASA, meanwhile, recently announced a $20 billion initiative aiming to establish a permanent nuclear-powered base on the Moon's south pole by 2032. Put together, investors should expect significant movement in SpaceX's moon base efforts in the coming years.

Image source: Getty Images.

Although we don't have betting market information for SpaceX's upcoming moon landings, we do have some interesting statistics related to SpaceX's efforts to land humans on the surface of Mars. Presumably, these efforts would come after a moon base is established, giving investors some insight into the timing of both.

According to Kalshi, SpaceX "plans to send a million people to Mars using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months. Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, averaging approximately 100 days."

Since 2024, investors have been betting on whether SpaceX will launch a manned flight to Mars before the start of 2030. In November of 2024, the predicted odds of this happening peaked at about 25%. Currently, however, the odds of the company launching a human flight to Mars by 2030 have slipped to about 10%.

Notably, Kalshi also has a small market where investors can bet on whether SpaceX will successfully land anything at all on the surface of Mars by 2030. In 2024, the odds were about 40%. Today, they hover just below 30%.

Earlier this year, the BBC reported that China is forging ahead with its own plans to land humans on the Moon by 2030. This news should trigger increased interest in the U.S. completing its own moon mission by that time. With best-in-class rocket technology, SpaceX should benefit from the renewed space race.

Although AI remains critical to SpaceX's growth trajectory, investors should expect plenty of investment in its moon project. Public and private interests seem to be aligning behind these efforts.

Technology may prove the biggest limiting factor to returning to the moon by 2030. I'm also keeping a close eye on SpaceX's funding capacities. Following a successful IPO, SpaceX's stock price is now below its offering price for the first time. And while plenty of financing options remain on the table, SpaceX may be forced to allocate its capital more tightly should markets fall or investor enthusiasm wane.

This is the biggest factor long term for SpaceX's growth ambitions: access to capital. That's especially true given the company remains unprofitable, with heavy capital expenditures resulting in mounting losses so far this year. The company's ability to scale its AI business, establish a base on the moon, and launch humans toward Mars will rely just as much on finances as it will on ambition.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.