Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Is Expected to Report $60 Billion in Q2 Revenue on July 29. The Stock Has Recovered From a 20% Drawdown to Within 5% of Flat for the Year.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) will deliver its second-quarter results on July 29, and the consensus expectation among Wall Street analysts following the company is that it will report roughly $60 billion in revenue, near the top of the company's own guidance range. The stock has quietly staged a comeback recently, clawing back from a slide of 20% earlier this year to within about 5% of where it started 2026.

But the figure investors should really focus on is not the revenue line. It is what Mark Zuckerberg is doing with all the cash the ad machine generates.

Zuckerberg's quiet pivot to a compute provider

Behind the familiar story of Instagram and Facebook ads, Meta is transforming itself into something new: a compute provider. Zuckerberg has raised the company's 2026 capital spending plan to a staggering $125 billion to $145 billion, most of it aimed at building out AI data centers on a scale few companies can imagine. Meta is deploying more than 1 gigawatt of the custom chips it developed with Broadcom, alongside processors from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices.

The more intriguing part is what Meta might do with all that hardware. Reports suggest it is exploring becoming a cloud infrastructure provider, effectively renting out computing power the way that fellow hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft do, including a potential multibillion-dollar compute deal with AI lab Anthropic. If that pans out, Meta would layer an entirely new business on top of its advertising empire, turning what has been a massive cost center into a possible revenue engine.

What to watch in the quarter

The advertising business remains the company's cash cow, and it is still growing at an impressive clip, so the headline revenue number should look healthy.

What should matter more to investors is evidence that Meta's enormous AI spending is paying off. Investors want to see AI further improving ad targeting and engagement, and will welcome any concrete sign that the compute build-out can generate direct revenue through capacity deals with external customers. The stock's 20% drop earlier this year came after the company boosted its capital expenditure forecast for the year, and investors flinched at the price tag. The recovery since then suggests they have regained some faith in the company's plans, but that also means the bar is higher now.

Image source: Getty Images.

What investors should consider

Meta's Q2 report will be less about whether it hits $60 billion in revenue, which looks likely, and more about whether Zuckerberg's plan to transform the company into a compute provider could justify the jaw-dropping costs of its data center build-out. The largely recovered stock price has already priced in a fair amount of optimism, so another surprise capex boost or thin evidence of monetization could reignite the fears that drove the earlier sell-off.

Longer term, I find the pivot genuinely compelling: If Meta can bolt a compute-rental business onto the most profitable advertising operation on Earth, it would have two powerful engines instead of one. But its spending plans are enormous, and the payoffs of those investments are unproven, so I will be watching Meta's capex guidance and monetization signals on July 29 far more closely than the headline revenue number.

Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.