SpaceX Earnings Are Coming Aug. 4. Here's Why Aug. 6 Could Prove to Be the Real Stress Test With SPCX Down 47% From Its High.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has officially announced Aug. 4 as the date of its highly anticipated earnings release for the quarter ended June 30. The earnings release and earnings call with Wall Street analysts will provide an updated look at where SpaceX is and where the company could be headed.

Here's why investors should also pay close attention to Aug. 6, and what the date could mean for SpaceX stock.

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Public markets have only gotten a taste of SpaceX

SpaceX went public on June 12, raising $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at $135 per share and then another $10.7 billion from underwriters exercising options to buy additional shares. But with SpaceX's market cap at $1.58 trillion at the time of this writing, that leaves the vast majority of shares owned by insiders through restricted stock units and early release eligible shares.

That means that the supply of shares potentially hitting public markets will be far higher than the shares currently available, which will test SpaceX's already beaten-down stock price.

At $119.85 as of market close on July 20, SpaceX is down 47% from its intraday high and 11.2% from its initial public offering (IPO) price.

Open the floodgates

In SpaceX's May 20 Form S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX outlines its unusual schedule for unlocking restricted shares at a far faster rate than the typical 180-day period for IPOs. The first wave of early release eligible shares will be made available for sale "on or after the second full trading day on Nasdaq immediately following the public release of our quarterly financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026." With the earnings call confirmed for Aug. 4 after market close at 4:30 p.m. ET, that makes Aug. 6 the first time since SpaceX's IPO when holders of early-release-eligible shares may choose to sell a portion of those shares on the Nasdaq.

An additional 10% of early release eligible shares may be transferred if SpaceX is above $175.50 per share for five of the 10 trading days leading up to and including Aug. 4. However, that is highly unlikely to happen considering that count down began on July 21, and SpaceX remains down over 30% from that price it needs to average over the next couple of weeks to trigger the extra release of shares.

Another 7% of shares will be unlocked on each of the following dates -- Aug. 31, Sept. 10, Sept. 25, Oct. 10, and Oct. 25. Another 28% of shares will be released two days after the quarter ended Sept. 30 earnings, before all shares are unlocked on Dec. 9.

A critical moment for SpaceX stock

SpaceX's earnings report, combined with more shares hitting public markets, will be the ultimate stress test for the growth stock. Especially if insiders decide to sell shares with SpaceX below its IPO price.

This is an incredibly exciting company for its technological prowess, lack of competition, and virtually infinite total addressable market. But I still think it's best if investors keep SpaceX on a watch list to see how the insider lock-up expiration unfolds, and for SpaceX to begin generating positive free cash flow so it doesn't have to continue relying on capital markets to raise money.

Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.