Prediction: Here's How Much SpaceX Will Be Worth by the End of 2026

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) (commonly known as SpaceX) could be something of a Rorschach test for investors. Some will look at the stock and see a massive long-term winner. Others view SpaceX as an overpriced, overhyped company destined to eventually fall like a shooting star.

After a staggering initial public offering (IPO) and a subsequent surge, it's natural for investors to wonder what's next for SpaceX's stock. The honest answer is that no one knows for sure what will happen. That said, I'll step out on a limb and make a prediction about how much SpaceX stock will be worth by the end of 2026.

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Factors affecting SpaceX's valuation

Multiple factors will affect SpaceX's valuation over the next six and a half months. I think three stand out in particular.

The company's lockup schedule is at the top of the list. From late July through August, up to 20% of insiders' shares could become eligible for sale. This number jumps by 10% if SpaceX's share price closes at least 30% above the IPO price of $135 for five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on the company's second-quarter earnings announcement.

SpaceX will then have staggered time-based releases. Up to 7% more shares can be sold at each point after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO date. After the company's third-quarter earnings call, up to 28% more shares can be sold. All restrictions on insider selling are lifted 180 days after the IPO date (in mid-December).

There's a simple reason why the lockup schedule is so important. If a large number of SpaceX's shares are sold within a short period, it could create selling pressure that drives the share price lower.

Speaking of SpaceX's Q2 and Q3 earnings, these events could also affect the share price. The stock could swing dramatically if SpaceX handily beats or misses Wall Street estimates.

The third key factor impacting SpaceX's year-end valuation, in my view, is the potential for the company to issue new shares to fund acquisitions. SpaceX's revised S-1 filing specifically stated in a brief discussion of recent business development deals, "We may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions." This fueled speculation that a merger with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) could be on the way.

A cautious prediction

Now for my prediction. It's a cautious one, because a lot could happen between now and the end of the year that could significantly impact SpaceX's valuation. However, I predict the space stock will trade at $150-$160 per share on Dec. 31, 2026.

The midpoint of this range reflects a decent, albeit not spectacular, gain for investors who bought at the IPO price of $135. However, it would mean a meaningful loss for anyone who scooped up shares when they were priced above $200.

My prediction assumes that investors' excitement about SpaceX will remain high, driven by continued media attention and my expectation that the company will post better-than-expected earnings. I think that this demand, though, will be offset to some extent by insider selling later this year.

For what it's worth, my forecasted price is a little lower than the average analyst price target of $164. But both Wall Street and I may be being overly optimistic about SpaceX's prospects, especially if the company issues a huge amount of new shares.

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.