SpaceX Will Surpass Amazon and Microsoft on Its Way to a $3 Trillion Valuation, According to One Wall Street Analyst
Key Points
SpaceX dethroned Saudi Aramco on June 12, becoming the largest initial public offering (IPO) in Wall Street's storied history.
SpaceX's leading position in the space economy and the potential for platform synergies have one Wall Street analyst excited.
However, Wall Street's high-water price target is overlooking a laundry list of historical headwinds that strongly suggest SpaceX will struggle in its first year as a public company.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
Overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco has officially been dethroned. On Friday, June 12, Elon Musk's SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public and nearly tripled the all-time capital raise for an initial public offering (IPO), raising $75 billion. Its $2.1 trillion market cap at the end of its first trading session slots in this artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate as the seventh-largest public company on U.S. exchanges.
However, the SpaceX story is just getting started, according to Wall Street's biggest SpaceX bull, Rob Chang, who sees Musk's company surpassing Amazon and Microsoft.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX: A $3 trillion company?
Fewer than a half-dozen Wall Street analysts weighed in with a price target on or before SpaceX's first trading day, but KGI Securities' Rob Chang was among them. He set an outperform rating on the newly public company, along with a $227 price target, representing 41% upside from its June 12 close. This implies a roughly $2.97 trillion valuation, which would slot SpaceX ahead of Amazon and Microsoft, based on their respective market caps as of June 12.
KGI's optimism stems from SpaceX's lead position in the space economy and the potential for platform synergies from acquisitions and ongoing innovation.
For instance, SpaceX's development and eventual commercialization of its reusable launch vehicle, Starship, can reduce launch costs and open several revenue streams. Aside from planetary exploration, Starship can also be used to carry cargo, including the satellites that power the space-based broadband network, Starlink.
SpaceX also plans to resolve the otherworldly demand for data center compute by building orbital data centers. As a pioneer of space-based AI data center infrastructure, Musk's company may be able to translate its competitive edge into superior margins.
Image source: Getty Images.
Historical headwinds suggest SpaceX stock will struggle mightily in its first year
Although certain structural dynamics should boost SpaceX shares over the next few weeks (e.g., its inclusion in the Russell Equity Indexes and Nasdaq-100), Chang's and KGI Securities' optimistic assessment overlooks several historical headwinds that make a $3 trillion valuation unlikely.
To start with the elephant in the room, SpaceX's valuation can't be justified. No company at the forefront of a game-changing innovation has maintained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for an extended period. Musk's AI and space economy titan closed out its first trading day at a P/S ratio of 113, based on its 2025 sales. Even with new compute deals from Anthropic and Alphabet, SpaceX can't escape bubble territory.
SpaceX S-1 has been filed
-- Julian Klymochko (@JulianKlymochko) May 20, 2026
LTM revenue of $18.7 billion with a 33.2% growth rate
EBIT loss of -$2.6 billion
Net loss of -$5 billion
At a $2 trillion valuation, will be trading at a 107x LTM revenue multiple
If added to the S&P 500, $SPCX will have the highest valuation,... pic.twitter.com/yxPDdahdQh
Game-changing innovations have also historically endured bubble-bursting events early in their expansion. Bubbles form and burst because investors grossly overestimate the optimization of innovations. SpaceX is a long way from optimizing its space infrastructure and xAI to boost its sales and profits.
Chang's frothy price target overlooks the historical poor performance of mega IPOs, too! According to data aggregated by Truist Financial, 30 of the largest tech-driven IPOs over the last 14 years averaged a year-one drawdown of 55%! What's more, just 43% were higher six months after their debuts. The buzz surrounding high-profile IPOs fades quickly, leaving investors disappointed more often than not.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Space Exploration Technologies wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $440,440!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,303,950!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 959% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of June 17, 2026.
Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Truist Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
