Better IPO Buy: SpaceX vs Anthropic

This year is turning out to be a big one for initial public offerings, bringing investors exciting new investing opportunities. Artificial intelligence (AI) chip company Cerebras Systems completed the biggest this year -- and now investors are eagerly awaiting the IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic.

The SpaceX operation may happen as soon as Friday, while Anthropic's will be further off -- the AI research lab recently filed confidentially with regulators, but it hasn't yet set a date for its market debut.

In any case, it's clear that 2026 could be an important year for investors interested in technology and growth stories. Now, with SpaceX and Anthropic marching toward their market launches, you might wonder: Which of these players is a better IPO buy? Let's find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

The case for SpaceX

SpaceX is a giant in three areas that offer exciting growth potential: rocket launches, satellite-based internet service, and AI. The company has become the leader in orbital launches, last year completing more than any rival, and this business could be key to the development of goals supporting its other businesses. SpaceX, by using reusable rockets, has brought down the cost of launches, and it may leverage this strength to bring its own satellite and AI equipment to space. In the meantime, it's also generating revenue by serving others, such as NASA.

But the biggest revenue driver so far has been the Starlink satellite internet business, and this could continue. Starlink grew subscribers to nearly 9 million last year from 2.3 million two years ago -- and over that time, Starlink's income from operations soared to $4.4 billion from $469 million.

Though all of this is exciting, it's important to note that SpaceX wasn't profitable last year, as its investments in the AI business dragged down earnings. This could continue, considering the high levels of investment needed to support AI growth.

SpaceX set a $135 per share price for its IPO and aims for a valuation of more than $1.7 trillion.

The case for Anthropic

Anthropic is the company behind well-known AI assistant and coding assistant Claude. The company competes with older AI lab, OpenAI. But in recent times, Anthropic has surpassed its rival in terms of valuation. Anthropic has reached a $965 billion valuation, compared to OpenAI's $852 billion. As for IPOs, they both are on track for operations. Anthropic submitted a confidential IPO filing to regulators on June 1, and OpenAI just this week said that it recently submitted a confidential filing. Like Anthropic, it hasn't yet announced a potential IPO date.

Investors don't know as much about Anthropic's financial situation as they know about SpaceX's, and that's for one simple reason. When a company files confidentially for an IPO, it hasn't yet made its financial statements available to the public. But if you're interested in the Anthropic IPO, not to worry: The company must release that information at least 15 days before its roadshow, so you'll have plenty of time to examine the data.

Here's what investors do know: Anthropic has reached a $47 billion annual revenue run rate -- this is up from $14 billion earlier this year. So the pace of growth has been tremendous. The company's Claude is available through Amazon's Amazon Web Services, Alphabet's Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure -- and this offers it access to a massive audience.

One key piece of information investors don't have yet is the company's gross margin. Though growth is strong, it will be crucial to examine profitability on sales.

Which is the better IPO buy?

It's difficult to say whether Anthropic is a buy without looking at the company's full financial picture. What investors know so far offers them reason to be optimistic, though it's important to keep in mind that Anthropic, as a pure-play frontier model company, comes with some risk. It doesn't have other businesses to compensate if the main business faces challenges. That said, the advantage of pure plays is that they can focus their efforts in one area -- and be nimble.

Investors have a clearer picture of SpaceX's financial situation, and though the company is delivering impressive growth, it also must invest heavily to support that. Meanwhile, SpaceX's potential valuation looks high right out of the gate.

Right now, it's too early to make a call on Anthropic. As for SpaceX, growth investors might pick up a few shares -- but instead of rushing to get in on the IPO, a better idea may be to wait and buy on an eventual dip.

Adria Cimino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.