This ETF Has Outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of the Past 20 Years. Will This Year Be the Same?
Key Points
The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) and the S&P 500 share 7 of their top 10 holdings.
Down periods in the tech sector hit QQQ harder than the S&P 500.
QQQ has outperformed every year since the 2022 bear market.
- 10 stocks we like better than Invesco QQQ Trust ›
The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is typically the benchmark investors use to determine whether a specific investment "outperformed" or "underperformed." Although plenty of Wall Street "experts" assemble and actively manage funds, most of them fail to outperform the S&P 500 over the long term.
One passively managed fund that has had the opposite fortune is the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ). Over the past two decades, it has been one of the better-performing ETFs on the market, and in that span, it has outperformed the S&P 500 16 times.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
With it outperforming the S&P 500 to begin this year (through June 8), is it likely to keep its momentum rolling?
Image source: Getty Images.
A rundown of QQQ's past performance
Here's how QQQ's total returns (which take dividends into account) compare to the S&P 500 over the past 20 years:
| Year | QQQ Total Return | S&P 500 Total Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| 2024 | 25.6% | 25% |
| 2023 | 54.9% | 26.3% |
| 2022 | (32.6%) | (18.1%) |
| 2021 | 27.4% | 28.7% |
| 2020 | 48.6% | 18.4% |
| 2019 | 39% | 31.5% |
| 2018 | (0.1%) | (4.4%) |
| 2017 | 32.7% | 21.8% |
| 2016 | 7.1% | 12% |
| 2015 | 9.5% | 1.4% |
| 2014 | 19.1% | 13.7% |
| 2013 | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| 2012 | 18.1% | 16% |
| 2011 | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| 2010 | 20.1% | 15.1% |
| 2009 | 54.7% | 26.5% |
| 2008 | (41.7%) | (37%) |
| 2007 | 19% | 5.5% |
| 2006 | 6.8% | 15.8% |
Data source: YCharts. Table by the author.
Much of QQQ's success has come from the technology boom over the past 20 years. Although it holds companies from almost all non-financial sectors, it has historically been a tech-leaning ETF. As of May 30, the tech sector accounted for 66.9% of QQQ.
What will it take for QQQ to outperform in 2026?
Whether QQQ will outperform the S&P 500 this year will come down to the performance of these seven companies:
- Nvidia
- Apple
- Microsoft
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- Broadcom
- Tesla
They're all among the top 10 holdings of both QQQ and the S&P 500, but the difference lies in how much each leans on them.
| Company | QQQ Weight | S&P 500 Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Apple | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Alphabet | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Microsoft | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| Amazon | 4.6% | 4.2% |
| Tesla | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Broadcom | 3% | 3.2% |
Data sources: Invesco and Vanguard. QQQ holdings as of June 5. S&P 500 holdings as of April 30.
These companies account for 39.3% of QQQ, while "only" accounting for 31.9% of the S&P 500. When they're flourishing, QQQ is almost guaranteed to outperform the S&P 500. When they're struggling, the S&P 500 will struggle as well, but not as much.
A good example is June 5, when a big tech sell-off caused QQQ to drop 4.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.6%. Of course, that's a small sample size, but the same happened during the 2022 bear market.
What are the chances of QQQ outperforming again?
Nobody can predict how stocks will perform, but I believe QQQ will beat the S&P 500 again this year. There are concerns that tech stock valuations are overinflated and due for a correction, but that's an issue both QQQ and the S&P 500 would have to reckon with.
Even if QQQ underperforms this year, it's still a great long-term investment. If you want to save a bit on fees, invest in its sister fund, the Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF.
Should you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust right now?
Before you buy stock in Invesco QQQ Trust, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Invesco QQQ Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $445,672!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,280,566!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 948% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 206% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of June 10, 2026.
Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
