Could Opendoor Stock Hit $10 in 2026?

"Meme mania" may have continued to fade for GameStop and AMC Entertainment during 2025, but for Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN), it was arguably its first time benefiting from the investing phenomenon.

The real estate iBuyer's shares zoomed from under $1 to as high as $10.87. Since then, this speculative growth stock has given back a significant portion of those gains. Trading for just over $5 per share today, at first glance, it may seem as though returning to $10 per share is well within reach.

However, I wouldn't jump to that conclusion. Besides the fact that a key reason behind last fall's rally is unlikely to repeat itself, other factors may limit Opendoor's ability to reach double-digit prices by year-end.

Image source: Getty Images.

The real driver behind Opendoor's 2025 rally

Yes, when it comes to what triggered and sustained Opendoor stock's mid- to late-2025 rally, one can cite numerous positive developments relating to the turnaround of the company's business, which consists of purchasing homes "as is" from owners, fixing them up, and then quickly putting them back on the market for resale.

For instance, investors reacted favorably to the return of Opendoor's co-founders, Keith Rabois and Eric Wu, to the company's board. They also reacted bullishly to news that Kaz Nejatian, formerly Shopify's chief operating officer, was coming aboard as Opendoor's new CEO.

Alongside this, investors became bullish about Opendoor's turnaround game plan, which largely entails utilizing generative artificial intelligence to reduce overhead costs and achieve consistent profitability.

However, before these factors influenced the stock price, what really kicked the stock into high gear was the social media commentary of investor Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital. Jackson, famous for his bullish call on Carvana, made a similar call on Opendoor last summer. Jackson also set an extremely high price target, $82 per share, for the stock. Retail investors eagerly heeded his bullish call, with a fervor reminiscent of the 2021 meme stock era.

Why history may not repeat itself

Last year, when Jackson began touting the stock, investors were optimistic that the housing market, frozen by rising interest rates in 2022 and 2023, would thaw soon. Unfortunately, as interest rates remain elevated, and existing homeowners remain locked into homes at low interest rates, a housing market recovery has yet to take shape.

And even as Opendoor has started using AI to optimize its cost structure, reaching profitability remains elusive. For 2026, analyst estimates call for a moderate narrowing of Opendoor's per-share losses, from negative earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 to negative EPS of around $0.15.

Moreover, even if Opendoor's turnaround starts to play out more rapidly, something else could cap the extent to which shares surge beyond the present price levels. Last fall, a complex series of transactions, including a warrant distribution, a registered direct offering, and the redemption of existing convertible notes, opened the door to immediate and future shareholder dilution. This, too, could challenge a further recovery.

Considering these new challenges, coupled with waning confidence in an immediate Opendoor comeback, I would wait for a new wave of positive news to develop before banking on this housing stock's return to $10 per share.

Thomas Niel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.