2026 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Joby Aviation. Here's What to Watch in the Next Earnings.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has spent years building toward one moment. In 2026, the company aims to launch its first commercial flying taxi service, turning a long-standing vision into a real business. If it succeeds, Joby could become one of the first companies to bring urban air mobility to market.

But getting there won't be easy. The company still needs to clear regulatory hurdles, prepare for real-world operations, and manage its cash carefully along the way. That's why 2026 looks less like another year of progress and more like a make-or-break phase.

The next earnings report in May may not answer all the questions. But it will offer early clues. Investors just need to focus on these signals.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

Certification progress: Is the timeline still intact?

Before Joby can carry passengers, it must obtain regulatory approval. Thus, certification remains the single biggest milestone between development and revenue.

So far, Joby has made steady progress. It has advanced through multiple stages of the certification process and continues testing aircraft designed to meet final standards. That puts it among the industry leaders.

But progress alone isn't enough anymore. At this stage, investors should look for signs that certification is nearing completion. That includes updates on advanced testing phases, regulator engagement, and whether timelines remain on track for a 2026 launch of commercial services.

Any delay here matters. Certification doesn't move in a straight line, and even small setbacks can push timelines back by months or longer.

For investors, here is what they should focus on: Is Joby moving closer to final approval, the final stage of the five-stage process?

Commercial readiness: Is Joby ready to operate a flying taxi service?

Even if certification progresses, Joby still needs to prove it can run a real service.

That means moving beyond aircraft development and preparing for day-to-day operations. The company has already taken steps in this direction. It plans to launch its initial service in Dubai, where regulatory support and infrastructure development may enable a faster rollout.

It is also building partnerships that could support its ecosystem, including ride-hailing integration and access to key locations.

But the next earnings report should reveal something more important: Is Joby preparing for real operations or is it still focused mainly on development?

Investors should look for updates on infrastructure readiness, pilot training, route planning, and early deployment timelines. These details signal whether the company is transitioning from a technology project into an operating business.

Cash burn: How long is the runway?

Despite its progress, Joby Aviation generates very little revenue and continues to spend heavily to reach commercialization. That makes its cash position a critical part of the story.

The company has raised significant capital, giving it time to complete certification and prepare for launch. For perspective, it ended 2025 with $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and raised an additional $1.2 billion in its latest capital raise -- giving it a total cash position of $2.6 billion.

But time is not unlimited.

Investors should pay close attention to how quickly Joby is using its cash and whether spending aligns with key milestones. The company expects to burn through $340 million to $370 million in the first half of 2026 -- so a rising burn rate without clear progress could signal execution challenges.

The key question is simple: Does Joby have enough runway to reach meaningful operations without excessive dilution?

What it means for investors

Joby Aviation is entering its most important stretch yet.

The company has already shown that its aircraft can fly. Now it must prove that it can move beyond development and operate as a real business.

That transition won't happen overnight. But the next earnings report should reveal whether the company is moving closer to that goal, or still working through the same uncertainties.

For investors, the message is simple: Focus less on headlines and more on execution.

If Joby shows steady progress in certification, commercial readiness, and capital discipline, it's one step closer to becoming a real business -- one that can generate sustainable revenue, and eventually, profitability.

Lawrence Nga has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.