Where Will NuScale Power Stock Be in 10 Years?

Even after a sharp correction, NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) remains one of the best pure play nuclear reactor stocks on the market today. It was the first to receive approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States for a small modular reactor design. NuScale also has several sizable customers in its project pipeline. Plus, the company already has 12 modules under construction, meaning it may have the ability to ship its first reactors faster than the competition.

It's not all roses, however. NuScale faces legitimate questions when it comes to the viability of its customer pipeline, the viability of its financial situation, and even the viability of small modular reactors in general. Where will NuScale be 10 years from now? You may be surprised by the answer.

NuScale Power faces a very uncertain decade ahead

If you pay close attention to NuScale's regulatory filings, as well as comments from its management team, you'll come away with a very optimistic vision for the company's prospects over the next decade.

The company stresses that the world is rapidly searching for new, scalable, clean-burning power sources to fuel everything from data centers servicing the AI industry to conventional electricity grids to power homes and electric vehicles (EVs). The company has received two design approvals from regulators -- designs that could be upscaled significantly down the road.

Its partnership with ENTRA1 -- a separately financed company that will handle the commercialization of NuScale's technology -- partially removes some of the execution risk involved in deploying its reactors. Indeed, ENTRA1 already has an agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of NuScale's technology.

Image source: Getty Images.

Reading all of this, you may come away thinking that NuScale is on the verge of scaling the commercialization of its technology. But in reality, no NuScale plants will begin generating power until 2030 at the earliest. Until then, NuScale will be on the hook for milestone payments that cumulatively add up to hundreds of millions of dollars.

NuScale does have around $1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments to support these efforts, but that cash was almost exclusively raised by selling stock. Over the last 12 months alone, total shares outstanding have increased by nearly 150%.

Meanwhile, the competitive landscape continues to heat up, with rising competition not only from pure-play SMR stocks, but from well-financed conglomerates like BWX Technologies and GE Vernova.

This is the truth about NuScale as an investment thesis right now: The next 10 years are extremely murky. Whether SMR technology successfully scales commercially is yet to be seen, even though technological innovation is steep industrywide. While NuScale has a promising story to tell, the company will likely be in the red for several more years at minimum, requiring more and more share sales to stay afloat.

A decade from now, we may see NuScale reactors in service, but mounting share dilution may completely mitigate any potential upside for patient shareholders. With very minimal evidence for how this industry will ultimately shake out, I'm sticking to the sidelines for now, even if the technology itself holds strong potential.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends BWX Technologies and GE Vernova. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.