US President Trump weighs military options as Iran rejects US memo
The US President Donald Trump is meeting with his national security team, considering the possibility of resuming military action against Iran, as Tehran’s response fell short of complying with Washington’s demands, three officials said to Axios.
According to Axios, U.S. officials expressed that Trump wants a deal to end the conflict, but Iran’s response put back the military option on the table.
Iran’s media reported that the regime rejected the US proposal, saying that it “meant Iran’s surrender to Trump’s excessive demands.”
The report revealed that the White House has different options. One is to resume Project Freedom; the second one is to resume “the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the US military identified but hasn't hit yet.”
Another option, which is one Israelis want, is for Trump to order a special forces operation to get Iran’s enriched uranium inventory. However, Israeli officials said Trump is hesitant because it is a highly risky operation.
Market’s reaction to the headline
WTI rose by almost $1 from around $98.87 to $99.83, as a resumption of hostilities puts pressure on oil prices and pushes inflation higher.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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